Aura Energy (ASX:AEE) Unlocks 800M Pounds of Uranium as Sweden Lifts Mining Ban- Time to Buy?

Aura Energy gains momentum as Sweden reopens uranium mining

Aura Energy (ASX: AEE) is suddenly one of the most interesting uranium stories on the ASX. Sweden officially lifted its seven-year uranium mining ban on 1 January 2026, immediately unlocking the company’s Häggån deposit, which holds an inferred resource of around 800 million pounds of uranium oxide, one of the largest undeveloped uranium deposits globally.

Last week, strategic investors led by MMCAP International committed C$10 million (approximately A$12 million) for a 19.7% stake in Häggån, putting a C$50 million (roughly A$58 million) valuation on it. Meanwhile, the Tiris uranium project in Mauritania advances towards a final investment decision, with production targeted for 2027. With two projects firing at once, is Aura Energy a buy?

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Sweden’s Uranium U-Turn Transforms Häggån’s Prospects

The Swedish parliament’s decision to overturn the uranium ban is a genuine game-changer for Aura. From 1 January 2026, uranium is now classified as a concession mineral under the Minerals Act, allowing exploration and mining through the standard permit process.

This matters because Sweden holds approximately 27% of Europe’s known uranium resources. The Häggån deposit hosts a 2.5 billion tonne polymetallic resource containing uranium, vanadium, and potash, giving Aura Energy multiple revenue streams from a single asset.

The MMCAP-led investment is perhaps the clearest endorsement of this potential. Aura Energy will transfer Häggån to SIU Metals, an unlisted Canadian company planning to list on the TSX Venture Exchange. Aura retains 78.7% ownership, maintaining strong exposure while bringing in fresh capital. For a project stranded for seven years, we believe this represents a major turning point.

Tiris Uranium Project Nears Production Decision

While Sweden grabs headlines, Aura’s flagship Tiris project in Mauritania continues to make steady progress. The company holds an 85% stake in what will become Mauritania’s first uranium mine. The economics are compelling: a post-tax NPV of US$499 million and an IRR of 39% at US$80 per pound of uranium, with a payback period of just 2.25 years.

The project is fully permitted with a 30-year mining convention in place. Aura Energy is targeting a final investment decision in Q3 2026, with production planned for late 2026 or early 2027 over a 25-year mine life.

That said, the FID timeline has slipped from the original Q1 2025 target as the company works through funding requirements with partners, including the US Development Finance Corporation. The project needs approximately US$230 million in development capital, which remains the key hurdle to clear.

The Investor’s Verdict – Buy, Hold, or Wait?

Aura Energy presents a compelling setup for risk-tolerant investors, though this is not a stock for the cautious.

The bull case is strong: two projects advancing simultaneously, the Sweden law change removes a major regulatory overhang, uranium fundamentals remain supportive, and the MMCAP investment validates Häggån at roughly A$58 million against Aura’s total market cap of around A$200 million. We believe this suggests the market may still be undervaluing the combined potential of both projects.

However, real risks remain. The Tiris FID has already been delayed, over US$230 million in financing is still needed, and execution risk is significant for any explorer transitioning to a producer. In Sweden, while the uranium ban is gone, the government is still working to fully remove the municipal veto for larger operations, a vote expected later this year.

Our view: this looks attractive for investors comfortable with development-stage uranium exposure. The Sweden catalyst is genuine, and the Tiris economics are robust. Consider accumulating ahead of the Tiris FID, but position sizing should reflect the volatility of pre-production resource stocks. If both projects advance as planned, the recent share price could prove a bargain.