Boss Energy Down 5.9% as Uranium Sector Weakness Continues

Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) was among the ASX 200’s worst performers today, with its share price falling 5.9% to $1.805. This marks a decline of nearly 68% from its May 2024 high of $5.63, bringing the stock near its recent lows. While the broader uranium sector remains under pressure, Boss Energy’s operational challenges, particularly at its Honeymoon project, have intensified scrutiny and made it a focal point for bearish sentiment. Peers such as Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) and Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL) have also seen weakness, but Boss Energy’s setbacks have drawn sharper attention from short sellers. With the share price halved and short interest surging, investors are asking: Is this a buying opportunity or a falling knife?

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Honeymoon Project: The Core of Boss Energy’s Troubles

Lower Production and Technical Issues

Boss Energy has revised its FY26 production guidance downward due to technical challenges at its Honeymoon project. The company is now targeting lower output volumes, citing difficulties in uranium recovery from ore. While the financial impact is significant, the exact revenue loss will depend on future uranium prices and operational progress.

The issue is technical: the mine isn’t recovering enough uranium from the ore. Boss Energy is targeting recovery rates above 70% to meet revised guidance, but investors remain uncertain whether this is achievable given current technical constraints.

Credibility Gap and Investor Sentiment

Boss Energy originally positioned Honeymoon as the catalyst for its transition from developer to producer. While the mine is operational, ramp-up has been slower and more problematic than anticipated. The Boss Energy stock forecast has deteriorated sharply, with the share price falling from a May 2024 high of $5.63 to current levels, reflecting a loss of investor confidence.

Boss Energy Short Interest Surges

Boss Energy is currently among Australia’s most heavily shorted stocks, with short interest significantly above the ASX 200 average. This compares to an average of 3–4% across ASX 200 stocks. The elevated Boss Energy short interest suggests deep scepticism from institutional investors.
Such high short positioning can create a self-reinforcing cycle: negative news drives selling, which validates the bearish thesis and attracts more short sellers. If BOE misses its upcoming production targets, further downside pressure could complicate future capital raising efforts.

Is Boss Energy a Buy? Contrarian Case Emerges

Despite the headwinds, Boss Energy maintains a strong balance sheet with approximately $229 million in cash and no debt. This gives the company 18–24 months of operational runway to address issues at Honeymoon without immediate funding pressure.

Key Catalysts to Watch

– A formal operational review of Honeymoon is underway, with results expected in the December 2025 quarter. Recovery rates approaching 70% would indicate progress towards operational stabilisation.

– Uranium spot price: Holding above US$75/lb supports the long-term thesis for uranium producers.

– Short interest trends: A decline below 15% would suggest waning bearish conviction.

Alta Mesa Project: Long-Term Upside

Beyond Honeymoon, Boss Energy owns the Alta Mesa project in Texas, which holds a resource base of 54 million pounds. Located in a mining-friendly U.S. jurisdiction, Alta Mesa offers upside potential, though development is still 3–4 years away.

Valuation Lens: Is BOE Cheap?

Boss Energy’s share price has declined from a March 2025 high of $4.20 to recent levels near $1.80, reflecting concerns over its Honeymoon mine and production targets. Despite this, the company holds $229 million in cash and has no debt, allowing it to address issues without raising funds. If operations improve and confidence returns, the stock could rebound. Long-term upside also exists through its Alta Mesa project in Texas, though development is years away. BOE may be undervalued, but only if it can turn things around.

Investor Takeaway

For patient, risk-tolerant investors, the contrarian case hinges on whether extreme bearish sentiment has overshot the fundamentals. If Honeymoon’s next update shows improved recovery rates, BOE stock could rebound sharply. However, conservative investors may prefer to wait for clear evidence of operational turnaround before committing capital.

Until then, Boss Energy remains a “watch and wait” proposition. The next few months will be critical in shaping the Boss Energy forecast and determining whether the company can regain investor trust.