Can Ryman Healthcare (ASX:RYM) succeed where its peers have failed?

Ryman Healthcare (ASX:RYM) is New Zealand’s largest aged care operator and is one of the ASX’s newest companies. It has just dual-listed on the ASX, retaining New Zealand as its primary listing. The question investors should be asking is: Can it succeed where many of its peers (i.e. listed or formerly listed ASX aged care stocks) have not?

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Who is Ryman Healthcare, and how did it get to this point?

Ryman began and remains headquartered in Christchurch. It was named after one of its founders, John. He and his business partner Kevin Hickman wanted to build something better than what they saw existed in the industry at the time. It listed on the NZX in 1999 and was a NZ$135m company by then. Through the 2000s, it kept scaling up in NZ: increasing the rate of village‐and‐beds development, opening more villages. Ryman was a top 10 company by 2009.

The 2010s saw it expand into Australia, initially in Victoria. And in October 2025, the company became dual-listed on the ASX. The reason for the ASX listing was to broaden its investor base (especially among Australian and international investors), improve liquidity (which is not that good in New Zealand even if better than most other companies listed there), and align with its growing operations in Australia. These days, Ryman has 49 villages with over 15,000 residents and 7,800 employees.

Aged care companies have historically not done well

Ryman does have its work cut out for it to succeed on the ASX.

Several aged care providers have listed on the ASX over the last 10–15 years — but most have faced financial pressure, scandals, or regulatory reforms that crushed margins. Don’t take our word for it, just look at companies’ track records. The graveyard includes:

• Estia Health, which was listed in 2014 and was taken private in 2023 after its share price halved from IPO levels,
• Japara Healthcare, which was listed in 2014 and was bought out by Calvary Health Care in 2021, and
• Aveo Group, which was delisted after being acquired by Brookfield in 2019.

Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG) remains listed but has struggled with its profitability and valuation for some time.

After the 2018–2021 Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety, the Australian government introduced stricter compliance standards, staff ratios, and wage increases — but funding didn’t always keep up. High fixed costs, capped revenues (in care), and rising staffing costs squeezed margins.

Could Ryman be different?

Potentially. There are some traits that could help it buck the trend, but nothing is guaranteed. One of its key traits is its business model.

Ryman doesn’t just run aged care facilities — it runs integrated retirement villages, where residents buy licences to occupy (occupation rights) and then access increasing levels of care on-site as needed. This model provides a property revenue stream (entry and resale), services income and care fees. This makes Ryman less exposed to purely government-funded care, unlike traditional aged care providers.

It has a strong reputation in New Zealand and owns valuable land, including land where it could develop more facilities in the future. Also, timing. Its listing comes after the aged care reforms, and many competitors have exited. And of course, there are strong industry fundamentals in the aging population and consequential demand for aged care/retirement living.

Obviously, there are some risks, including execution risks (this cannot be underestimated in an era of supply chain issues), regulatory risks, labour shortages and the high capital intensity. And the company made a big loss of NZ$436.8m driven by write-downs, higher interest expenses and certain one-off costs. Ryman did some work to reset, including raising NZ$1bn in equity to strengthen the balance sheet, restructuring its debt and closing facilities that no longer met Ryman standards without major reinvestment.

8 days after its listing, Ryman released a trading update. It reported 367 sales of Occupation Right Agreements (ORAs), 93 of which were new sales and 274 were resales. This excludes refundable accommodation deposits and ORAs on aged care. Volumes rose 9% quarter on quarter but were down 18% from 12 months ago (which was a record quarter). Occupancy was 95.8%.

Conclusion

We cannot say with certainty if Ryman will succeed. But if it does not, in light of its track record and business model, then it is unlikely that any other aged care companies will ever succeed on the ASX.