Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) Drops on Chile Strike: Is This a Buying Opportunity?

Capstone Copper: Is This a Buying Opportunity?

Capstone Copper (ASX: CSC) fell 4% to A$14.51 last week after workers at its Mantoverde mine in Chile went on strike starting January 2, 2026. Union #2, which represents about half of Mantoverde’s workers and roughly 22% of Capstone’s total staff, walked out after pay talks broke down. The mine is now running at just 30% of normal output. For copper investors, this raises an obvious question: Is the drop a chance to buy a quality copper stock at a discount or a warning sign to stay away?

What are the Best ASX Mining Stocks to invest in right now?

Check our buy/sell tips

What’s Behind the Strike and How Long Could It Last?

The dispute is about money. Copper prices jumped around 40% in 2025, hitting near-record highs of US$5.70 per pound. Workers want a bigger share of those profits, which is understandable given the strong market.

Here’s the good news: Capstone Copper already signed new three-year deals with the other three unions at Mantoverde in 2025. This shows management can reach fair agreements when both sides negotiate in good faith. The company has said it wants to keep talking, which we see as a positive sign.

Mining strikes in Chile usually last weeks, not months, when companies stay at the table. Given Capstone’s recent success with other unions, we think there’s a decent chance this gets sorted out in the first quarter.

Why Capstone Copper Can Handle This Disruption

The strike hurts, but it won’t cripple the company. Capstone Copper runs four mines across the Americas, not just Mantoverde. Its other operations in Arizona (Pinto Valley), Mexico (Cozamin), and another Chilean site (Mantos Blancos) keep running normally.

The company’s finances look solid. Capstone Copper has US$1.1 billion in available liquidity, including over US$300 million in cash and substantial undrawn credit facilities. This means it can ride out a longer strike without serious trouble while still funding its growth plans.

Perhaps most importantly, the copper market remains strong. Demand from electric vehicles, data centres, and power grids keeps growing. J.P. Morgan expects copper prices to climb even higher in 2026, reaching an average of US$12,500 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026. If copper stays expensive, Capstone’s earnings power remains intact once Mantoverde returns to full speed.

The Investor’s Takeaway for Capstone Copper

Analysts remain bullish on the stock. The average price target for the ASX-listed shares has been adjusted to A$15.80, representing a 9% upside from the recent close of A$14.51.

The main risk is time. If the strike drags on for months, production losses will add up and could delay Capstone’s growth targets. However, we view an extended standoff as unlikely given the company’s track record of reaching deals.

Our take: For investors who believe in copper’s long-term story, this weakness looks like a buying opportunity. Capstone Copper has a diversified business, a strong balance sheet, and exposure to a metal that’s essential for the energy transition. More cautious investors may prefer to wait for signs that the strike is ending before making an investment. Either way, we don’t see this as a reason to panic.