Copper Hits US$12,000: Is Now the Right Time to Buy BHP (ASX:BHP) Shares?

Copper Record Highs: Could BHP Be the Next Breakout?

BHP Group (ASX: BHP) is trading near 52-week highs above A$45.60 as copper hit a historic peak of US$12,159 per tonne last week, marking an unprecedented milestone. The metal has surged roughly 36% in 2025, its strongest annual rally since the 2009 post-GFC recovery.  For investors, the question is simple: does BHP still have room to run, or has the market priced in the copper boom?

We believe BHP remains the best way to play copper on the ASX, but timing matters. With shares up 12% this month, patient investors may find better entry points ahead.

What are the Best ASX Mining stocks to invest in right now?

Check our buy/sell tips

Why Copper Is Surging and What It Means for BHP

The copper market is facing its worst supply crunch in years. A mud rush at the Grasberg mine in September forced operations to stop. While repair work has progressed enough for a gradual restart from the second quarter of 2026, analysts confirm that a return to pre-disaster production levels is unlikely before 2027.

The scale of the deficit is staggering. The Grasberg disruption, a 48,000-tonne loss at El Teniente after a seismic collapse in July, and a 155,000-tonne shortfall at Kamoa-Kakula due to flooding have together removed more than 750,000 tonnes of copper from the expected global supply in 2025.

On the demand side, the outlook is even stronger. Goldman Sachs expects more than 60% of copper demand growth through 2030 to come from electric vehicles, AI data centres, and clean energy. US tariff threats have also pushed traders to stockpile the metal, tightening supply further.

What does this mean for BHP? Quite a lot. The miner owns Escondida in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine, which increased production by 22% in the first half of FY2025. Unlike Freeport-McMoRan, which relies heavily on the now-crippled Grasberg, BHP’s diversified production shields it from single-mine disasters. In our view, this makes BHP the safest copper bet on the ASX.

BHP’s Copper Pivot Is Paying Off

BHP has quietly transformed from an iron ore giant into a copper powerhouse. The A$9.6 billion takeover of Oz Minerals in May 2023 added two quality mines, Prominent Hill and Carrapateena, in South Australia. Together with Olympic Dam, the company now has what management calls a “copper province” with room to grow.

The company has committed US$10-14 billion to expansion projects that could add 540,000 tonnes of yearly output. Copper contributed 45% of BHP’s total underlying EBITDA in FY2025, a massive leap from 29% just one year prior, effectively ending iron ore’s decade-long reign as the sole primary earner.

Why does this matter? Copper’s future looks far brighter than iron ore’s. BHP expects a global copper shortfall of 10 million tonnes over the next decade. Companies with low-cost mines like Escondida will benefit most as prices rise and new projects struggle with permit delays.

The Investor’s Takeaway: Buy, Hold, or Wait?

This is where some caution is needed. The shares are trading at A$45.60, just under their 52-week high of A$45.98. At 16.8 times earnings and a dividend yield of 3.7%, the valuation looks reasonable, but it’s not cheap.

Broker views broadly agree. Out of 16 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it a hold, with an average price target of A$45.50, suggesting little upside from current levels. Even the most optimistic forecast, CLSA’s A$47.50 target, points to only limited gains.

Our take: For long-term investors who are comfortable with commodity price fluctuations, BHP remains a high-quality copper exposure with solid dividend yields. However, if you want a better entry point, we suggest being patient. A dip in copper prices or fresh China worries could create buying opportunities in early 2026. Watch for BHP’s operational update on 20 January for the next clues. The copper story is intact, but at these levels, the stock looks fairly priced.