Copper’s Decade-Long Bull Run Begins: 3 ASX Stocks to Buy Now

Copper prices have surged back above the psychologically important US$5 per pound level, trading at US$5.09 on October 24 after rising 7.74% over the past month and up 17.33% year-over-year. The rally represents more than just a commodity bounce—it signals a fundamental shift in copper demand driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure and the accelerating energy transition.

For Australian copper producers, this creates a compelling investment opportunity. With the global copper market tightening and new supply constrained, mid-tier ASX miners are positioned to capture significant margin expansion at current price levels.

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Why Copper Prices Are Surging

The recent price strength reflects multiple tailwinds converging simultaneously. Since early October, copper has broken through US$5 and climbed to US$5.11, driven primarily by supply fundamentals rather than speculation. This marks a shift from the July volatility when prices swung wildly on tariff fears.

Supply disruptions continue tightening the market. The International Copper Study Group revised its 2025 surplus forecast down to just 178,000 metric tons from 209,000 tons predicted in April, and now expects a 150,000 metric ton deficit in 2026. Major disruptions at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula operation and Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine—two of the world’s largest copper mines—have pushed 2025 mine disruptions to 6% of global supply.

With inventories already at multi-year lows and scrap unable to bridge the gap, analysts suggest higher prices may be necessary to incentivize new projects. Given that new copper mines typically require 7-10 years from discovery to production, the supply-demand imbalance could persist well into the 2030s.

The AI Data Center Copper Intensity Story

Perhaps the most transformative demand driver is artificial intelligence infrastructure. Microsoft’s $500 million Chicago data center used approximately 2,177 tonnes of copper—roughly 27 tonnes per megawatt of power capacity. With AI-ready server racks requiring even higher power densities, copper intensity is climbing further.

AI data centers require approximately 0.9-1.3 tons of copper per megawatt of capacity, with a typical hyperscale AI facility consuming up to 50,000 tons of copper. Copper accounts for approximately 6% of a data center’s total capital expenditure.

The growth trajectory is staggering. BloombergNEF analysts project copper demand from data centers will average around 400,000 tonnes annually over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tonnes in 2028, with cumulative use topping 4.3 million tonnes by 2035. Goldman Sachs estimates AI will drive a 165% increase in data center power demand by 2030.

This comes atop surging demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and grid modernization—sectors already expected to nearly double copper consumption by 2035.

Three ASX Copper Producers to Watch

Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR)

Sandfire stands as one of the most compelling copper growth stories on the ASX, having delivered record revenues in FY25 and achieving a return to profitability with net income of $143.99 million. The company operates globally diversified assets with production split between its MATSA operations in Spain and the emerging Motheo Copper Mine in Botswana.

Sandfire achieved copper equivalent production of 152,000 tonnes in FY25, up 12% year-over-year. The real growth driver is Motheo, which produced 58,000 tonnes of copper equivalent in its first full year of commercial production, up 29% year-on-year. With Stage 3 expansion of the T3 deposit and ongoing discoveries at the A4 open pit, output could soon exceed 60,000 tonnes annually.

At around $10.91 per share with a market cap exceeding $5 billion, Sandfire offers investors scale, geographic diversification, and direct exposure to the copper supercycle. The company’s focus on long-life, low-cost operations in stable jurisdictions provides both security and upside potential.

29Metals (ASX:29M)

29Metals operates two long-life producing assets: Golden Grove in Western Australia (copper, zinc, gold, and silver) and Capricorn Copper in Queensland (copper and silver), both with estimated mine lives exceeding 10 years.The company’s strategy focuses on pure-play copper exposure through established operations.

Trading around $0.41 with a market cap of approximately $562 million, 29Metals offers leverage to copper prices through its dual-asset base. The Golden Grove operation provides production diversification with polymetallic output, while Capricorn Copper delivers focused copper-silver exposure.

29Metals also holds exploration interests including regional tenements surrounding its operations and a strategic project in Redhill, Chile—the world’s largest copper-producing country. This Chilean exposure could unlock significant value if exploration succeeds in a tier-one jurisdiction.

For investors seeking mid-cap exposure to Australian copper production with geographical optionality, 29Metals presents an interesting risk-reward proposition at current valuations.

Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS)

Aeris has emerged as a standout performer in 2025, with shares surging 192.8% year-to-date, enough to turn an $8,000 investment into $23,424. This momentum reflects both operational improvements and copper price leverage.

The company reported copper equivalent production of 10.3kt for Q1 FY26, targeting 24,000-29,000 tonnes of copper at Tritton for the full year. Aeris ended the quarter with $46.4 million in cash and receivables, maintaining a manageable debt position of $40 million on the WHSP facility.

The company posted a $45 million NPAT turnaround and strong operational cash flow despite heavy capital expenditure, demonstrating operational leverage as copper prices rise. With shares trading around $0.595, the stock offers pure-play Australian copper exposure through its Tritton operations in New South Wales.

Aeris also benefits from an emerging theme: defence spending, with Australia’s estimated $39.1 billion defence spend in 2024 including $8.8 billion allocated to critical minerals. As defence budgets ramp toward $58.4 billion in FY25/26, copper demand for military applications provides an additional tailwind.

Our Take: Multi-Year Bull Case Forming

The confluence of AI-driven demand, supply constraints, and energy transition requirements suggests copper’s strength represents more than cyclical recovery—it signals the start of a structural bull market. With little new supply scheduled to come online in the near term and demand continuing to grow from energy transition and AI sectors, the supply-demand dynamics favor sustained price support.

For ASX copper producers, this creates a rare opportunity for margin expansion and production growth to occur simultaneously. Australian miners benefit from stable jurisdiction risk, established infrastructure, and proximity to Asian markets where copper demand is concentrated.

Among the three stocks profiled, each offers distinct risk-reward characteristics. Sandfire provides scale and geographic diversification with proven growth in Botswana. 29Metals delivers dual-asset diversification with Chilean exploration upside. Aeris offers the highest operational leverage to copper prices with spectacular year-to-date performance.

Conservative investors might favor Sandfire’s larger market cap and established operations. More aggressive growth investors could find Aeris’ momentum and smaller size appealing. Value-oriented investors might appreciate 29Metals’ dual-jurisdiction strategy at a modest valuation.