Why Big Money Thinks Gold’s Best Days Are Still Ahead (2026 Predictions)

Why Gold Keeps Winning When Confidence Breaks

With gold remaining one of the most closely followed commodities among investors, we wanted to step back and understand what high quality, large institutions are forecasting for gold prices and why the outlook continues to attract so much attention.

Gold has long played a unique role in financial markets. Before the modern financial system moved toward fiat currencies, gold functioned as a foundational form of money. While its role has evolved over time, one core principle has remained remarkably consistent. Gold is widely viewed as a store of wealth.

Historically, periods of heightened uncertainty have driven investors toward gold. This tends to occur when fear rises in financial markets, currencies are devalued, or global reserve currency dynamics begin to shift. During these transitional phases, confidence in paper assets can weaken, and capital often flows into assets perceived as stable and scarce.

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Why the World’s Biggest Banks Are Still Betting on Gold

To put some structure around current gold price expectations, it is useful to look at what large global investment banks are saying.

JPMorgan expects central bank buying and investor demand for gold to remain strong heading into 2026. In its outlook, the bank sees gold potentially reaching around US$5,000 per ounce by the December quarter of 2026, with a longer term view that prices could move toward US$6,000 per ounce if current structural trends persist.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a very similar base case. Goldman forecasts gold prices of approximately US$4,900 per ounce by December 2026, reinforcing the view that institutional expectations remain firmly skewed to the upside. While the exact price targets differ slightly, both firms are effectively pointing to the same underlying narrative, that the structural drivers supporting gold remain intact.

From our perspective, it is important to acknowledge that precise price targets should never be taken as certainty. However, the broader setup is difficult to ignore. Ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the US, China, Iran, and Venezuela, combined with rising US fiscal deficits, persistent inflation concerns, and sustained central bank demand, all represent meaningful tailwinds for gold.

Gold, Uncertainty and a Market Looking for Stability

The last time we saw truly significant moves in the gold price was during the 1970s, following a major shift in the global monetary system. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon announced the end of the US dollar’s convertibility into gold, effectively abandoning the gold standard.

In simple terms, the US had been issuing large amounts of fiat currency that was still officially backed by gold. However, the pace of money printing began to far exceed the level of gold reserves available. As inflation pressures emerged and confidence in the system weakened, governments and investors rushed to exchange paper currency for physical gold.

Once it became clear that US gold reserves were insufficient to meet this demand, trust in the currency system deteriorated rapidly. The result was a dramatic repricing of gold as investors sought protection from currency debasement and rising inflation.

During this period, the gold price surged from around US$35 per ounce to a peak of approximately US$850 per ounce. This followed a major bull market for gold for almost a decade.

The Dot.com crisis and golds rise

A similar dynamic played out in the early 2000s following the dotcom bubble and the September 11 attacks. In response to the economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve aggressively cut interest rates and later introduced quantitative easing to stabilise the financial system.

At the time, gold was trading at around US$250 per ounce. Over the following decade, as monetary stimulus intensified and liquidity flooded the system, gold entered a powerful bull market, eventually peaking near US$1,920 per ounce. This period coincided with sustained quantitative easing after the global financial crisis, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against monetary expansion.

Quantitative easing increases the supply of currency in the system, which can dilute the purchasing power of existing cash. In response, capital often flows toward scarce assets such as gold that cannot be printed or debased.

Looking back, this episode provides a clear reminder of how gold has historically performed during periods of aggressive monetary policy and financial uncertainty, conditions that continue to shape today’s macro environment.