How Great Northern Minerals Fits Into the West’s Critical Minerals Strategy

Catalyst Ridge could be the next Mountain Pass story

Pitt Street Research has recently initiated coverage on Great Northern Minerals (ASX: GNM), and we wanted to share a clear picture of the story that’s starting to take shape. GNM presents a compelling long-term opportunity, particularly given the growing global push to develop Western-aligned rare earth projects that reduce dependence on China.

The company is progressing its early-stage Catalyst Ridge Project in the Mojave Desert, California, located near the world-class Mountain Pass district. The only large-scale rare earths deposit in North America and a cornerstone of US national security. That proximity gives important geological context and hints at the potential scale of what Great Northern Minerals is exploring.

For investors, the next major catalyst will be the initial drilling program, with results expected within the next 3–9 months. These results will give the first real insight into the grades and potential size of the deposit. If the assays come back strong, the upside could be significant as the project moves closer to defining its resource potential.

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The Energy Transition’s Structural Surge in Rare Earth Demand

To help investors understand why the rare earth market has become such a critical focus right now, it’s worth stepping back to look at the bigger picture. This group of 17 elements forms the backbone of modern technology, especially the heavy rare earths, which hold the greatest economic value due to their scarcity and essential role in high-performance applications.

Their unique magnetic and electrochemical properties make them indispensable for advanced industries. Neodymium is a key component in electric vehicle (EV) motors, while dysprosium is used in missiles, jet engines, and defence systems. These materials are not just important for innovation, they are fundamental to national security and industrial competitiveness.

Global demand for rare earths has nearly doubled since 2015, and the trajectory continues to climb. The clean energy transition is a major driver, with EV sales expected to surpass 20 million in 2025, and by 2030, one in three cars sold is projected to be electric. Strong government incentives, supply-chain reshoring, and accelerating consumer adoption are fuelling a structural surge in demand for high-value rare earth elements, positioning the sector for sustained long-term growth.

Geological Parallels to Mountain Pass Highlight Great Northern Minerals Exploration Potential

So how does this all tie back to Great Northern Minerals? The connection lies in geology, and it’s a compelling one. The Mountain Pass deposit in the United States is one of the highest-grade rare earth deposits in the world, averaging around 6.5% total rare earth oxides (TREO). For comparison, China’s largest deposit, the Bayan Obo mine, located roughly 100 kilometres north of Mongolia, typically grades between 4–6% TREO. Mountain Pass is globally significant not just for its grade but also for its concentration of high-value rare earth elements, which are essential to advanced technologies and defence applications.

GNM’s Catalyst Ridge Project sits in a region with striking geological similarities to Mountain Pass. Early studies have identified Proterozoic granitoid rocks and northwest-trending structural features, the same rock formations that host the rare earth mineralisation at Mountain Pass. This resemblance suggests that Catalyst Ridge may hold similar mineral potential, which meaningfully increases the speculative value and exploration appeal of the project.

National Security Tailwinds Could Power the Next Phase of Growth for GNM

One of the most important near-term catalysts for Great Northern Minerals aside from the upcoming drilling results, is the growing national security tension surrounding rare earth supply chains. With China controlling roughly 69% of global rare earth mining and around 90% of processing, the United States has made securing an independent supply a top strategic priority. This has led to a wave of federal funding aimed at accelerating both the upstream production and downstream processing of rare earth materials within Western markets.

Since 2020, the U.S. Department of Defence (DoD) has committed more than USD 439 million (AUD 670m) to strengthen its domestic rare earth supply chain. A key beneficiary has been MP Materials, which operates the Mountain Pass mine. This initiative, supported by multi-billion-dollar federal investment, highlights Washington’s intent to reduce reliance on Chinese processing and fortify the domestic industrial base.

More recently, the U.S. government expanded its support with an estimated AUD 400 million in convertible equity and an additional AUD 150 million loan to enhance heavy rare earth separation capacity, a critical bottleneck in the supply chain. These investments are also tied to the construction of the “10X” magnet manufacturing facility and the Independence Plant, which together are expected to produce 10,000 metric tonnes of magnets annually.

For Great Northern Minerals , this trend is encouraging. The company’s Catalyst Ridge Project, located near the Mountain Pass district, positions it strategically within a region that has already attracted substantial U.S. government investment. Should early exploration results prove promising, GNM could emerge as a future candidate for similar funding or partnership opportunities, aligning with Washington’s long-term goal of securing a diversified and resilient rare earth supply chain.