Medallion Metals’ $60M War Chest Sets Up 2026 Production Push- Is the Stock a Buy?

Medallion’s A$60M Raise Sets Up a 2026 Production Push

Medallion Metals (ASX: MM8) has secured an A$60 million funding package, with Lion Selection Group committing A$5 million to the raise. For investors watching the junior gold developer space, this backing from one of Australia’s most respected resource-focused investment groups signals strong institutional conviction in the Ravensthorpe project’s development pathway. The stock has delivered exceptional returns, up more than 300% year-to-date from its February raise price of 10 cents. The question now is whether the smart money is right to keep backing MM8, or whether much of the upside is already priced in.

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Medallion’s Low-Cost Path to Gold Production

What makes Medallion Metals stand out is its low-cost path to production. Instead of spending heavily to build a new processing plant, the company has arranged to buy the Cosmic Boy facility from IGO’s mothballed Forrestania nickel project.

This move is important because it cuts down both the risks of building from scratch and the amount of money needed up front. A scoping study in December 2024 showed that Medallion would only need about A$73 million in pre-production capital, far less than a typical new gold project. The study also pointed to strong potential output, around 336,000 ounces of gold and 13,000 tonnes of copper over 5.5 years, at competitive costs once copper credits are factored in.

In simple terms, Medallion is aiming to become a gold producer with lower costs, lower risks, and a faster route to cash flow than many of its peers.

Smart Money Keeps Backing MM8

Lion Selection’s A$5 million commitment is notable because Hedley Widdup’s fund has built a strong track record picking junior gold winners. This follow-on investment, after participating in a February 2025 raise at 10 cents, represents a strong vote of confidence in management’s execution.

Widdup pointed to the Cosmic Boy deal as the key catalyst: “This not only delivers a rapid pathway to production but also provides exciting growth opportunities to turn a gold company’s eye to the Forrestania ground.”

The institutional register has strengthened throughout 2025. Alkane Resources holds around 6% of the company, while the Lowell Resources Fund has also participated. In our view, when multiple sophisticated mining investors commit capital at progressively higher prices, it validates that the development thesis is resonating with those who understand the sector best.

Is Medallion Metals a Buy at Current Levels?

The bull case rests on three pillars:

• First, the capital-light development pathway reduces execution risk compared to typical greenfield projects.
• Second, current gold prices sit well above the study’s base case assumptions, providing a substantial margin buffer.
• Third, institutional backing from experienced resource investors validates the opportunity.

However, investors should recognise this remains a pre-production story with inherent risks. The Final Investment Decision is targeted for late 2025, meaning construction and commissioning hurdles still lie ahead. Project financing discussions are ongoing, with offtake partners offering up to A$50 million in facilities, but nothing is locked in yet.

At current prices around 40 cents, the stock trades at a market capitalisation of approximately A$245 million, roughly half the project’s NPV at A$4,000 gold and a much smaller fraction at today’s spot prices. In our view, this suggests the market is still pricing in meaningful execution risk, which could present an opportunity for investors willing to back the development timeline.