Newmont (ASX: NEM) Reports 106% Earnings Growth in Q2: Gold Rally Continues

Gold prices surged last quarter, and Newmont made the most of it. In the June 2025 quarter, the world’s largest gold miner didn’t just keep up with the rally; it smashed expectations, reporting a 106% jump in earnings and a major boost in free cash flow. At a time when inflation fears, geopolitical shocks, and currency swings are pushing investors toward safe-haven assets, Newmont (ASX: NEM) has emerged as a high-conviction play. But is this just the beginning of a longer bull run, or are we nearing the peak of gold’s momentum? Let’s break it down.

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Blowout Earnings and Record Cash Flow in Q2 2025

Newmont’s (ASX: NEM) June quarter was one of its strongest in recent years. In Q2 2025, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of US$1.43, nearly double the US$0.72 recorded in the prior quarter. This kind of earnings growth is rarely seen in the mining sector, especially in such a short time frame. It’s a clear reflection of Newmont’s ability to leverage favourable market conditions while maintaining solid operational control.

Adjusted net income attributable to shareholders rose to US$1.594 billion, compared to approximately US$1.25 billion in the prior quarter. GAAP net income was reported at US$2.1 billion. On the revenue front, the company brought in US$5.32 billion, a significant year-on-year increase, as higher realised gold prices more than offset a slight dip in production volumes.

But the real highlight was free cash flow, which rose to a record US$1.71 billion, up from approximately US$1.2 billion in Q1 2025 and nearly triple the figure from the same quarter last year. With gold trading at multi-year highs and Newmont managing costs efficiently, the company was able to convert a large portion of its revenue into cash. This kind of financial firepower gives Newmont flexibility that few peers can match, whether it’s in expanding projects, buying back shares, or returning capital to shareholders.

The results sent a clear signal to the market: Newmont is not just riding the gold rally, it’s outperforming at every level.

Revenue Beats, Shares Climb: Newmont’s Strongest Quarter Yet

Newmont (ASX: NEM) didn’t just post big earnings in Q2; it crushed revenue forecasts and sparked renewed investor confidence. Analysts were expecting a strong showing, but the company exceeded even the most bullish predictions, reporting US$5.32 billion in revenue against consensus estimates around US$4.8 billion. The beat was largely driven by higher realised gold prices, which averaged approximately US$3,337/oz, combined with stable production from key sites like Nevada Gold Mines, Peñasquito, and Boddington.

The top-line strength flowed straight through to the bottom line. With costs held in check and gold prices rallying, Newmont converted more revenue into profit, a critical metric investors watch closely in the mining space. The standout US$1.71 billion in free cash flow shows just how efficiently the company is operating right now.

Investors responded immediately. Newmont’s stock jumped between 6% and 7% on the earnings day, reaching its highest level in nearly three years. The move was backed by strong trading volumes, suggesting institutional investors were adding to positions.

For Australian investors in particular, Newmont’s ASX listing offers direct exposure to a global gold leader during a time of strong bullion demand. With gold’s safe-haven appeal back in focus and Newmont executing at a high level, it’s clear why the market is rallying behind the stock.

Macro Drivers: Gold Rally, Risk Premiums and FX Tailwinds

The macro environment couldn’t have been more favourable for Newmont in Q2 2025, and the company made the most of it. Gold prices surged throughout the quarter, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, growing fears of a global slowdown, and central banks doubling down on gold reserves. Newmont’s average realised gold price came in at US$3,320/oz, a huge jump from the US$2,347/oz it fetched during the same quarter last year.

This price rally wasn’t just about inflation hedging. It was also about the renewed safe-haven demand for gold as uncertainty swirled around global markets. Tensions in Eastern Europe, slowing growth in China, and fluctuating US policy settings all contributed to a shift in investor sentiment, and gold was the clear winner. According to World Gold Council data, central banks, particularly in Asia, have continued to load up on physical gold, helping underpin global demand.

On top of that, foreign exchange movements played in Newmont’s favour. The US dollar weakened against several major currencies, which helped boost margins in countries where Newmont operates, including Australia, Peru, and Ghana. These FX tailwinds acted as an additional earnings lever, especially important given that Newmont generates revenue in USD but incurs costs in local currencies.

Together, these macro drivers created a near-perfect storm of upside for gold producers. And Newmont, with its global footprint and low-cost asset base, was uniquely positioned to take advantage of the moment.

Pipeline & Risks: Growth Options Balanced by Execution Pressure

Newmont may be enjoying a strong run, but sustaining that momentum will depend heavily on how well it executes its next wave of growth projects. Two major developments stand out: the Red Chris copper-gold project in Canada and Ahafo North in Ghana. Both have the potential to boost production and reduce all-in costs, but not without challenges. Red Chris involves technically complex block caving, while Ahafo North is navigating labour negotiations and local permitting timelines. Any delays here could weigh on short-term sentiment.

The company is also pushing forward with its portfolio optimisation strategy following the Newcrest acquisition. This involves offloading higher-cost, non-core assets to focus on its most profitable operations. While that’s a smart long-term move, it does mean a temporary dip in overall production, a factor investors should factor into near-term earnings models.

Being a global player also comes with its own set of risks. Newmont’s operations span North America, South America, Africa, and Australia, making it vulnerable to political shifts, regulatory changes, and environmental disruptions. Recent tax changes in Ghana and permitting issues in Chile are reminders of how quickly these risks can surface.

On top of that, Newmont’s growing exposure to copper introduces added volatility. While the red metal offers long-term upside, especially with rising demand from electrification, current prices remain choppy, and China’s mixed recovery adds another layer of uncertainty.

That said, with a strong balance sheet, disciplined capital allocation, and a diversified portfolio, Newmont is better positioned than most to manage these risks. But investors will need to watch closely how the pipeline progresses, because the next 12 months will set the tone for its long-term growth story.

Comparative Positioning: Outpacing the Sector

Newmont’s Q2 performance has clearly set it apart. With free cash flow reaching US$1.71 billion and adjusted EPS nearly doubling quarter-on-quarter, it outpaced major peers like Barrick Gold, Kinross, and AngloGold Ashanti, all of which posted solid results, but none with the same margin strength or balance sheet flexibility. Newmont’s ability to consistently beat expectations is setting a new bar across the global gold sector.

Its Relative Strength (RS) Rating of 92 puts it in the top 10% of all listed stocks, a rare achievement in a sector known for cyclical volatility. Operationally, it maintains a competitive edge with an AISC of US$1,593/oz, and its near-zero net debt-to-EBITDA ratio gives it ample headroom to fund growth, pay dividends, or expand its buy-back program without straining its capital base.

For ASX investors comparing Newmont to domestic players like Northern Star, Evolution Mining, or Regis Resources, the value proposition is even clearer. While those companies offer solid Australian exposure, Newmont brings something more: a globally diversified portfolio, exposure to copper growth markets, and a track record of delivering under pressure. It’s not just a leader in gold; it’s a miner positioned for the next cycle.

Investor Takeaway: Why This Matters for Australian Shareholders

So, what does all this mean for investors on the ASX?

First, Newmont offers local exposure to a global gold powerhouse. While most Australian gold miners have limited geographical diversification, Newmont gives ASX investors access to a broader suite of Tier-1 assets across North and South America, Africa, and Australia.

Second, the company is now a cash machine. With US$1.7 billion in FCF, minimal debt, and a growing buy-back program, shareholder returns look structurally robust. For yield-seeking investors or those seeking a defensive macro hedge, Newmont fits the bill.

Lastly, we believe Newmont is well-positioned to outperform in an environment where gold prices are expected to remain elevated. As more investors hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and currency instability, the demand for gold-linked assets could rise further, making Newmont a beneficiary of both sectoral tailwinds and internal execution.

FAQs

• What caused Newmont’s Q2 earnings to rise by 106%?

  The surge in earnings was primarily driven by a sharp increase in realised gold prices, which jumped to over US$3,320/oz, combined with strong cost control and higher margins across its portfolio.

• Is Newmont still paying dividends?

  Yes, Newmont paid a US$0.25/share dividend in Q1 2025 and is expected to maintain this payout, with potential upside depending on future free cash flow.

• How does Newmont compare to other gold miners?

  Newmont outperformed peers like Barrick Gold and Kinross in both earnings growth and cash flow, with analysts rating it among the top gold stocks globally.

• What risks should investors be aware of?

  Risks include execution delays at growth projects, a decline in gold prices, political or regulatory issues in international jurisdictions, and cost pressures in developing markets.

• What is the outlook for gold prices in 2025–26?

  Many analysts forecast continued strength in gold prices due to central bank demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risk. Some even see gold testing the US$4,000/oz level in the next 12–18 months.