Newmont (ASX: NEM) Hits Record High After 135% Rally: Is the Gold Giant Still a Buy?

Newmont at record highs: buy or wait?

Newmont (ASX: NEM) has delivered one of the standout performances on the ASX this year, surging approximately 135 per cent to trade near AUD $150 per share as gold prices soar to record highs near USD $4,300 per ounce. The world’s largest gold miner is generating record free cash flow, yet faces a crucial leadership transition with outgoing CEO Tom Palmer stepping down on December 31. With Palmer selling shares in November and analysts divided on whether the rally has further to run, investors face a simple question: Is Newmont still a buy at all-time highs, or has the easy upside already been priced in?

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Record Cash Flow Powers the Rally

Newmont’s Q3 2025 results highlight why the stock has attracted so much attention. The company has delivered outstanding quarterly results, easily beating forecasts for both revenue and profit. The biggest highlight was the free cash flow of USD $1.6 billion, a record for the company and the fourth consecutive quarter above $1 billion. This surge is mainly due to gold prices being near all-time highs, which makes every ounce mined highly profitable.

What makes this impressive is how Newmont converts elevated gold prices directly into shareholder returns. The company is putting this cash to work by buying back its own shares and paying dividends, returning more than USD $800 million to investors in recent months. At the same time, Newmont’s financial position looks very strong, with billions in cash and almost no debt after paying off USD $2 billion.

For investors, this shows a company running at full strength, though the key question is whether the stock price already reflects all this success.

The Risks Investors Should Watch

Despite strong fundamentals, several factors warrant caution. The most significant is the CEO transition. Tom Palmer, who led Newmont through transformative acquisitions, including the USD $16.8 billion Newcrest deal, retires on December 31. Natascha Viljoen takes over on January 1, 2026. While the transition looks orderly, leadership changes at major miners can create bumps, and markets don’t like uncertainty.

What caught our attention is that Palmer sold around 5,000 shares in early November, pocketing roughly USD $400,000. Now, we don’t think this signals anything alarming; he’s sold shares regularly over the past two years. But when a departing CEO is trimming rather than holding, it’s worth noting.

The analyst community is also divided. UBS recently raised its target to USD $125 with a Buy rating, seeing more upside ahead. But BNP Paribas went the other way, downgrading to Neutral and suggesting the stock is fairly valued around current levels. On the ASX, the average target sits near AUD $158, which implies some room to run from today’s AUD $150, but not a huge amount after such a massive rally.

The biggest risk remains gold price dependency. Newmont’s record cash flows are directly tied to elevated bullion prices. If gold pulls back, earnings and free cash flow would compress accordingly.

The Investor’s Takeaway for Newmont

Newmont is a strong gold company, but the stock may already be expensive. On the positive side, it’s the world’s biggest gold producer, with top-quality mines, record cash flow, and big payouts to shareholders. If gold prices rise towards $4,500-$5,000, Newmont could benefit even more.

On the negative side, the stock is already close to analyst price targets, and a CEO change, plus the risk of falling gold prices, could hurt investor confidence.
Overall, we believe Newmont is still a high-quality way to invest in gold. Current shareholders have good reasons to hold, but new investors might get a better deal by waiting for a price drop. Key things to watch are the CEO transition, Q4 results, and gold’s trend into 2026.