Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST): The $28bn gold miner that stands above them all

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) is by far the largest gold company on the ASX, capped at $28bn as of May 2025. Although Newmont (which bought Newcrest and since the purchase, has its CDIs listed on the ASX) is a larger company, only a minority of its shares are listed on the ASX. What makes NST ‘stand above the rest’? And is there any growth left? Yes is the answer to the latter question, but let’s address them both.

All about Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST)

Northern Star Resources is one of the ASX’s biggest gold mining stocks, capped at $28bn. For the past 2 financial years, produced 1.6Moz of gold from its 3 operating mines – Pogo in Alaska, along with Yandal and Kalgoorlie in WA. In FY24, it made nearly $5bn in revenue, $2.2bn EBITDA and a $639m profit.

A far cry from its humble beginnings. NST was founded in 2003 and spent about 7 years as another small cap explorer. It became a producer in 2010 when it bought the Paulsens mine, and the rest is history. The returns that Northern Star Resources has generated for its investors are unparalleled among ASX companies over the last 15 years. And there are no signs of the company declining.

Yes, it helps that gold is seen as a safe haven and as a store of value in high-inflationary environments. But companies such as Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) depict that stellar performance of the commodity you are mining for is no guarantee of returns – you have to perform from an operational perspective and not delivery nasty surprises to your investors. NST has boasted that it has increased its Return on Capital Employed from ~2% to 6% in the past 3 years.

A good half

NST’s last update came in its 1H25 results in which the company confirmed its guidance for the full year. It estimates selling 1.65-1.8M ounces at an AISC of A$1,850-2,100. It didn’t give a revenue or profit estimate, but given the gold price is over A$5,000, it is fair to say it’ll be making a hefty margin and more revenue than last year – analysts call for $6.4bn revenue which is up over $1.4bn from the year before. The most important asset is Kalgoorlie which will account for 890-980koz of the total.

But perhaps the biggest event of the quarter was buying De Grey (ASX:DEG) for $5bn, a step setting the company up for a significant future. The deal was closed last week, on Tuesday May 6.

De Grey is the success story of the decade. Its Hemi Gold Project in WA’s Pilbara region has an Ore Reserve is 6.0Moz @ 1.5g/t gold and could produce 5.7Moz over 12 years, equating to over 500,000 ounces per annum.

The project’s DFS has found it would deliver $4.5bn in free cash flow after tax, a payback of less than 2 years despite a capital cost of nearly $1.3bn. The DFS showed an NPV of $2.9bn post-tax, representing an IRR of 36% at an AISC of $1,295/oz over the first 10 years. The total evaluation period economic contribution is a staggering $10.8bn. And keep in mind that this was at a gold price of just A$2,700/oz.

NST expects it will start production in FY28.

Guidance and Outlook

As we noted above, analysts covering Northern Star expect revenue to grow 30% from $4.9bn to $6.4bn in FY25, with further growth to $8bn in FY26. $8.4bn us expected in FY27, then $8.8bn in FY28. The EBITDA line is expected to grow from $2.2bn to $3.3bn in FY25, then to $4.5bn in FY26 followed by more moderate growth in the next two years.

On the bottom line, analysts call for $1.08 EPS in FY25, up from $0.55 in the year before. Considering the new shares issue to De Grey investors, taking the number of shares on issue from 1.1bn to 1.4bn, this would represent a profit of over $1.5bn. In FY26, they expect $1.60 per share EPS, which would be a profit of $2.2bn.

Analysts actually believe much of this growth is priced in, with its mean price $22.39 – barely 10% above current levels. The company’s near $30bn price tag would make it look expensive, but its multiples tell a different story. Its multiples for FY26 are very cheap – at 5x EV/EBITDA, 12.4x P/E and 0.33x PEG.

We’re not saying invest in NST just because of its low multiples, but to write it off just because it is $30bn would be just as great a mistake – even if it is only because of Hemi and what it will contribute to the company.

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