Oil Crashes 15% on Iran Ceasefire: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Woodside (ASX:WDS), Santos (ASX:STO) and Beach Energy (ASX:BPT)?

Thursday was a rough day if you owned ASX energy stocks. Woodside (ASX:WDS) fell more than 10%. Santos (ASX:STO) dropped 6%. Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) slid 7%. The rest of the ASX actually rallied on the same day, making energy the one sector left bleeding. The trigger was a 15% crash in the oil price after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. For investors sitting on strong gains during the conflict, the question this Friday morning is simple: was Thursday an overreaction, or the start of something worse?

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How Much of This Drop Is Actually Justified?

Some of it makes sense. Woodside had gained more than 50% this year and Santos was up around 31%, with both stocks riding Brent crude above US$118 per barrel at its peak. When a ceasefire is announced, some of that fear premium comes out. That is normal.

But here is what the market may be missing. The ceasefire runs just two weeks, and Iranian officials are already calling it temporary. Oil partially bounced back on Thursday as fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised new doubts about the truce. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, none of which is flowing freely yet. VP JD Vance heads to Islamabad this weekend for direct talks with Iran, and markets are watching that very closely. The supply story is not over.

We believe Thursday’s sell-off was partly justified and partly a crowded trade unwinding fast. It does not mean the energy investment thesis is broken.

Woodside, Santos and Beach Energy: What Should You Do?

Woodside (ASX:WDS): Hold

Woodside is still up more than 50% this year, even after Thursday’s fall. It pays a dividend yield above 5% and holds long-term LNG contracts that protect revenue when oil prices wobble. The investment case holds up well at current oil prices. Selling into a fragile two-week ceasefire looks premature.

Santos (ASX:STO): Hold, But Do Not Add Yet

Santos has a strong long-term growth story through its Barossa project. The complication right now is that its Darwin LNG plant is temporarily offline due to dry gas seal issues on the compressors of the BW Opal FPSO vessel. Santos confirmed it was in the final stages of commissioning as of late March but has given no firm restart date. Two headwinds at once means this is not the moment to add more.

Beach Energy (ASX:BPT): Wait and Watch

Beach fell hardest on Thursday, reflecting its sensitivity to short-term oil price moves. The recently confirmed A$607 million Moomba Central Optimisation project with Santos is a genuine long-term positive, targeting more than A$600 million in cost savings and cutting Scope 1 emissions by around 40,000 tonnes of CO2 per year. But until there is clarity on oil prices and the ceasefire, sitting on the sidelines is the smarter move.

The Bottom Line for ASX Energy Investors

The ceasefire is real but short and fragile. Long-term holders in Woodside and Santos are still sitting on substantial gains even after Thursday’s falls. Panic-selling into a deal that could reverse at this weekend’s Islamabad talks would likely be the wrong move. Watch whether the Strait actually reopens before making any big decisions.