OpenAI AI Crown Is No Longer Untouchable

OpenAI’s Reign Faces Its First Real Test

Many people have heard the headlines claiming that OpenAI is calling a code red, but most still do not understand why. When we dig into the data on market share across AI model usage, a clearer picture starts to form. What investors and users should keep in mind is that we do not believe this market will have a single winner. Each model, whether it is Google’s Gemini, DeepSeek, or Grok, brings its own strengths and unique functionality. Even though OpenAI enjoyed roughly a two-year head start, competitive pressure has intensified as more users experiment with Anthropic and Google’s Gemini.

The numbers make this trend impossible to ignore. Twelve months ago, OpenAI controlled more than 85% of model traffic share. Today it sits just under 75%, with Gemini steadily capturing more of that activity. This signals a market that is broadening rather than collapsing into a monopoly, and investors should be thinking about how different business models will coexist rather than assuming one dominant outcome.

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Why did Sam Altman call a code red

Sam Altman recently sent an internal memo to employees declaring a code red, essentially an urgent all-hands directive that shifts resources back toward accelerating improvements in ChatGPT rather than diversifying into advertising or other revenue pathways. The immediate catalyst was the release of Google’s Gemini 3, which has outperformed ChatGPT on several key benchmarks, including reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks.

This internal alarm highlights a broader shift in the industry. OpenAI, which once operated with almost no meaningful competition, is now facing renewed pressure from rivals such as Google and Anthropic. Gemini 3’s tight integration across Google’s ecosystem, including Search and Workspace, is speeding up its adoption and widening its reach.

When we compare ChatGPT with the broader market, the shift is becoming clearer. Two years ago, ChatGPT was effectively operating with close to 100% market share. Today that figure has fallen to roughly 72%.

In any high-growth industry, competition is inevitable, and competitive advantages naturally erode over time. It is a normal and healthy dynamic that prevents monopolies from persisting indefinitely. Some forecasts even suggest ChatGPT’s share could settle between 35% and 40% by 2030. This does not signal collapse but rather the build-out of an industry that is expanding quickly and attracting capable challengers.

Altman the Dealmaker, or the Master of Momentum

Sam Altman has also built a reputation as a strong dealmaker, although some scepticism remains. A good example is the widely circulated claim of a US$100 billion partnership with Nvidia, which in reality appears to be more of a memorandum of understanding rather than a fully executed agreement. Nvidia itself has not confirmed a binding deal.

This raises the possibility that Altman is strategically using these partnership announcements to maintain momentum and keep OpenAI’s name at the centre of the broader AI conversation. From an investor standpoint, it is worth recognising both the ambition behind these moves and the need to separate genuine commercial agreements from headline-driven signalling.