Our 5 ASX Predictions for 2026!

This article outlines 5 ASX Predictions for 2026 that Stocks Down Under puts its neck on the line to assert will happen. It has become an annual tradition of ours, and some of these calls we get right, others we don’t. Arguably our boldest call in suggesting ANZ would be the best performing big 4 bank was the one we were most right about with the bank gaining 26%, ahead of any of its peers.

We were right on REITs recovery…until November and December when rate hikes took the steam out of the market. While uranium was not quite the commodity of the year, it is set to finish 2025 roughly 10% higher. We were wrong there’d be an IPO boom, but we right on Chemist Warehouse.

With all that out of the way…here are our calls.

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Our 5 ASX Predictions for 2026

Canva will list

This might not happen until 2027, but there are signs the long-awaited listing of Canva will happen in 2026.  Unfortunately, it may list on Wall St before the ASX. But with the ending of the Tech Wreck, money has poured back into tech companies like Canva. Just consider that this company was valued at US$42bn/A$65bn in August 2025 and made US$2.7bn in 2024.

A key sign will be the company’s 2025 figures and if they show strong growth. If so, this will whet investor appetite to gain a pice of the company, and whet the appetite of employees and its early backers (who haven’t done so already) to sell out. For those wondering why we included Canva’s IPO in the list of ASX Predictions when we think it’ll list in the US…we think it’ll lead to the biggest calls for changes to the bourse to encourage companies to list here – one being dual class shares. We think that change will happen eventually…but not in 2026.

Copper will be the best commodity in 2026

After predicting uranium would do well for the last couple of years going on to be wrong in 2024 and partly right in 2025, we think it will be copper. Copper is a crucial industrial metal and there is an emerging crunch in supply given its use in technologies such as electric vehicles, data centres as well as renewable energy. To illustrate how important copper is, the average ‘copper accumulated stock-in-use per capita’ (the typical cumulative copper in everything in a typical household) tends to be around 100kg.

Companies that stumble across copper deposits will be snapped up. Major miners will look to diversify into this space, those already there will double down. All this happened in the last 2 years as gold rose, and we think it will be copper’s time to shine in 2026.

One or two big-name IPOs…driven by private equity selling

Even if it is a subdued year for IPO activity, private equitors know one of the easiest ways to cash out is to sell to ASX retail investors – they won’t ask why you’re selling if you seriously think more growth is to come. There’s plenty of case stories of companies that haven’t done well including Myer (ASX:MYR) and Adore Beauty (ASX:ABY) as well as others that have temporarily done well and crashed back to earth like Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG).

Interest rates rising…and a consequential market shock

We think a rate hike will happen in one of the first two RBA meetings of 2026. Just when we thought inflation was under control, it turns out it was not (or only temporarily) and inflation is now outside the RBA’s target range. With the RBA only concerned about inflation, it will act – we have little reason to suspect data will improve that much so that the RBA will wait a little longer.

And we think there’ll be a major crash (i.e. a >1.5% drop in the ASX 200 in a day) when this happens. Because for poor old consumer discretionary companies…their goods will be more discretionary than ever. And who knows how much longer the rate-hiking cycle will last.

Westpac will be the best ‘Big 4’ Bank

Having successfully predicted ANZ as the best Big 4 Bank in 2025, we think the runner-up of 2025 will be the winner in 2026. CBA has little scope to grow further, NAB appears to be unable or unwilling to develop plans to differentiate itself and perhaps ANZ’s growth is priced in. Westpac is not without risk as it has been under constant regulatory scrutiny since its $1bn fine in 2020 for breaches of AML/CTF laws. Plus, it lost the most mortgage market share of any major bank over the last 12 months.

But just as ANZ’s Nuno Matos put his stamp on the bank, so is Westpac’s Anthony Miller who is focusing on areas where the bank has underperformed. These have included brand rationalisation, a pursuit to grow the proportion of mortgages on its book generated in-house (i.e. without brokers) as well as a project by the name of Unite. It will cost $3bn over this and the following 3 financial years but will unite the >100 operating systems across Westpac’s core brand and others (i.e. St George, BankSA, Bank of Melbourne).