Robex Resources (ASX:RXR) Pours First Gold and Seals A$2.17B Merger: Time to Buy This Stock?

Robex Resources: First Gold Pour and $2.17B Merger Approved

Robex Resources (ASX: RXR) has ticked off two major boxes that we believe transform its investment case. On December 21, the company poured the first gold at Kiniero in Guinea, on time and on budget. Nine days later, shareholders backed an A$2.17 billion merger with Predictive Discovery by a massive 94.54% vote. Together, these milestones shift Robex from developer to producer just as gold prices sit near record highs. The combined company will hold around 9.5 million ounces of gold across two mines just 30 kilometres apart. In our view, this creates one of the most exciting gold stories heading into 2026.

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Why Kiniero’s On-Time Delivery Matters for Investors

The first gold pour at Kiniero marks the completion of a 17-month construction phase, achieved with nearly 5 million hours worked without a lost-time injury. The inaugural gold bar weighed 2.64 kilograms (85 ounces), with the plant now progressing through ramp-up and achieving recoveries in line with expectations.

What makes this milestone particularly significant is the track record behind it. This represents the sixth consecutive on-budget build by the Robex construction team over the past 15 years, a rare achievement in an industry notorious for cost overruns. For investors, this execution capability matters because the same team will now turn their attention to developing Predictive’s Bankan project.

Kiniero is expected to produce around 139,000 ounces per year over nine years, rising to 154,000 ounces in the first six years. The feasibility study shows a post-tax value of US$322 million at US$1,800 gold. With gold now above US$4,300, actual returns should be much stronger. Near-term cash flow from Kiniero will also help pay for Bankan’s development, reducing the need for expensive external funding.

What the Merger Means for Shareholders

The deal gives Robex shareholders just under half (46.5%) of the combined company. More importantly, it solves a key problem: how to fund Bankan’s development without heavy dilution.

Bankan is one of Africa’s largest undeveloped gold projects, valued at US$1.6 billion. But building it requires over US$460 million. By merging now, Kiniero’s near-term cash flow can help fund that construction, meaning less debt and fewer new shares issued. We think this is the smartest path to getting both mines into production.

Together, the combined group targets over 400,000 ounces per year by 2029. That’s mid-tier producer territory, and it should attract larger institutional investors who currently overlook smaller names.

The Investor’s Takeaway

The bull case rests on three pillars: proven execution capability, gold price tailwinds with spot prices above US$4,300 per ounce, and scale that positions the combined entity for potential inclusion in major indices like the ASX 200 and GDXJ.

However, investors should recognise the risks. Guinea’s country risk remains elevated, with the mining sector subject to evolving regulatory oversight. The merger still requires final approval from the Quebec Superior Court, with a hearing scheduled for January 13, 2026, followed by regulatory clearances from Mali and Guinea expected in Q1 2026. Additionally, the revised deal terms represent dilution for the original Robex shareholders who initially were offered a larger ownership stake.

For growth-oriented gold investors comfortable with West African exposure, the current setup appears attractive. The combination of immediate production, a construction-ready tier-1 development project, and a management team with an unblemished delivery record is difficult to find elsewhere. More conservative investors may prefer to wait until the January court approval and Q1 regulatory clearances provide greater certainty. Either way, the successful first gold pour removes the most immediate execution risk, making Robex one of the more interesting gold plays heading into 2026.