The Iran US Ceasefire, What Happened & What It Means for Investors

Hormuz is still Iran’s weapon

The Iran-US ceasefire came just two hours before Trump’s 8:00 p.m. Tuesday deadline, a deadline under which he had threatened to bomb every bridge and power plant in Iran. Trump also said the US would be helping manage the traffic buildup in the Strait during the ceasefire.

Even so, the deal still looks fragile. Iran said it would regulate passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran also stated its armed forces would only stop defensive operations if attacks against it stopped.

That fragile backdrop was reinforced almost immediately. Even after the ceasefire came into effect, missiles were still launched from Iran toward Israel and several Gulf states.

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Iran’s Grip on Hormuz, The Structural Problem

Iran’s 10-point proposal, which Trump described as a “workable basis,” includes some major demands: reopening the Strait in coordination with Iran’s armed forces, lifting all sanctions, and ending US and Israeli operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

To us, that suggests Iran is still negotiating from a position of leverage. It does look like Trump is being toyed with to some extent. Yes, he has the power to destroy much of the country’s meaningful infrastructure, but the real question is whether he is playing this the right way. Our concern is that every delay gives Iran more control.

Iran has reportedly told mediators it would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around a dozen a day and charge tolls, with vessels required to coordinate with the IRGC. Fees could reach as high as $2 million for a supertanker, payable in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan.

That is why this matters. The longer this drags on, the more Iran can use the Strait as a pressure point. We are no longer just watching a military standoff. We are watching a fight over control, leverage, and the terms of global trade through one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

What It Means for ASX Investors Specifically

We initially saw a powerful relief rally in Australia, with the sharemarket posting its best day in about a year and adding roughly $83 billion to the All Ordinaries’ combined $3.1 trillion market value. The ASX 200 jumped 233 points, up 2.55% to 8,951.8.

That move made sense at the time. Investors rushed back into risk assets as the ceasefire eased immediate fears of a broader escalation and a prolonged energy shock.

The biggest losers were energy stocks. The ASX 200 Energy sector fell 8% as oil prices dropped, with Woodside and Santos giving up all of their war-period gains. Karoon Energy fell 11.7%, Beach Energy dropped 6.7%, Viva Energy lost 9.3%, and Ampol fell 4%. Coal names were also hit hard, with New Hope down 9.5% and Yancoal down 8.4%.

On the other side of that move, airlines surged on the prospect of cheaper fuel. Qantas rose 9% and Virgin climbed 13%. Tech and growth stocks also outperformed, with ASX 200 Information Technology leading the market higher with a 7.31% gain. Materials added 4.47%, Financials rose 2.77%, and Industrials lifted 2.89%.

But a lot of that optimism has now started to unwind. As Iran appears to tighten its grip around the ceasefire and reassert control over key pressure points, the market is being forced to reassess whether that initial relief was too aggressive.

Key Risks for Investors Going Forward

Even under the ceasefire, only a trickle of ships are moving. As of Tuesday, 187 tankers carrying 172 million barrels of seaborne crude and refined oil products were still stuck inside the Gulf, and that backlog is not going to clear overnight.

That is why we think the market still needs to be careful. A ceasefire may pause the immediate escalation, but it does not suddenly fix the logistical damage, the shipping delays, or the supply uncertainty that has already built up.

There is also still a deep trust deficit on both sides. From Washington’s perspective, the issue is Iran’s nuclear program. From Tehran’s perspective, the issue is US intentions, especially after previous withdrawals from agreements.

So while a two-week window may sound constructive on the surface, we do not see it as resolution. We see it as a pause inside a much bigger conflict that remains unstable.