Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Crashes to Decade Low After $687M US Writedown: Time to Sell or Buying Opportunity?

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) slumped more than 6 per cent to $5.45 on Monday after announcing it will write off the entire $687.4 million in goodwill from its Americas business. The non-cash impairment pushed shares to their lowest level since August 2015, with the stock collapsing from a 52-week high of $12.02, wiping out more than half its market value in just 12 months. For investors wondering whether this represents a buying opportunity or a warning sign, we believe caution is warranted until the new CEO outlines a credible turnaround strategy at the mid-December investor call.

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What the US Writedown Reveals About Treasury Wine’s Outlook

Treasury Wine Estates’ latest move is more than just an accounting change. It shows the company now expects slower growth in the US market for years ahead. In its 2025 Annual Report, management warned that if future cash flows fell by 11%, its goodwill buffer would disappear. That threshold has now been breached, suggesting the deterioration in US wine trends has been more severe than anticipated.
Brands like DAOU, Frank Family Vineyards, and Matua are still performing well, but they can’t make up for the overall decline in demand. Analyst Michael Toner from RBC Capital Markets called the news “negative”, saying it highlights growing doubts about the long-term strength of the US wine market. He also argued that Treasury Wine likely paid too much for its US acquisitions, a concern that now seems justified.
For investors, the outlook is worrying. The company has said the final impairment could affect other assets beyond goodwill, with more details coming in its 2026 interim results. In short, more write-downs may be on the way.

New CEO Inherits a Dual-Market Problem

Sam Fischer, the former Lion boss, stepped into the CEO role on October 27, taking charge at a difficult time for Treasury Wine Estates. He inherits a company facing challenges in both of its most important international markets. In the US, wine demand continues to soften, while in China, conditions remain tough despite the removal of tariffs that had previously shut Australian producers out of the market.

Fischer brings more than 30 years of experience in alcoholic beverages and consumer goods, including 15 years at Diageo, where he built a strong reputation for leadership. That background gives investors some confidence, but his turnaround plan for Treasury Wine is still unclear. The company has scheduled an investor call for mid-December to outline its next steps. Until then, shareholders are left waiting, uncertain about how the new CEO will tackle the company’s mounting pressures.

The Investor’s Takeaway

At face value, a 51 per cent decline might look tempting. RBC Capital Markets maintains an “outperform” rating with a $9.80 target price, implying nearly 80 per cent upside from current levels.

However, we believe there are too many unknowns to justify stepping in now:

• Strategic direction unclear: Fischer hasn’t outlined his turnaround plan yet
• Further writedowns possible: The company flagged potential impacts to other assets
• Dual-market challenges: Both the US and China face structural headwinds
• No forward guidance: FY26 outlook was withdrawn in October

For investors considering Treasury Wine, we’d recommend waiting for the mid-December investor call. The new CEO needs time to assess the business and articulate a credible path forward. Until then, the risk of further disappointments remains elevated, and patience appears to be the prudent approach.