ASX Stocks Set to Win or Lose From Trump’s Venezuela Operation

ASX Stocks to Watch After Venezuela Military Strike

The US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sent shockwaves through global markets, creating clear winners and potential losers among ASX-listed stocks. Gold surged nearly 3% to above US$4,460 per ounce on Monday as investors sought safe-haven assets, while silver outperformed with a 7% surge to around US$79, and defence stocks rallied on heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Energy stocks, meanwhile, face a more complicated picture.

For Australian investors, this crisis offers both opportunity and risk. Here’s our take on which ASX stocks stand to benefit and which might face headwinds.

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Gold Miners: Clear Beneficiaries of Safe-Haven Demand

The Venezuela crisis reinforces why gold remains the go-to asset during geopolitical turmoil. With analysts at JP Morgan targeting US$5,000 per ounce by late 2026, ASX gold miners appear well-positioned.

Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) is Australia’s largest pure-play gold miner, with operations in Western Australia and Alaska. The stock surged 73% in 2025 but recently trimmed FY26 production guidance to 1.6-1.7 million ounces (down from 1.7-1.85 million ounces) following a primary crusher failure at KCGM and operational challenges at the Yandal and Pogo production centres. Shares appear fairly valued at current levels.

Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) delivered standout performance in 2025, climbing around 160% on record production and strong cost control. The company maintains sector-leading all-in sustaining costs at A$1,572 per ounce. UBS recently downgraded to ‘sell’ on valuation concerns.

Silver Stocks: The Overlooked Winner

Silver actually outperformed gold on the Venezuela news, jumping 7% compared to gold’s 2.9% gain. This bigger move reflects silver’s dual role as both a safe-haven metal and an industrial commodity used in solar panels and electronics.

China’s new export restrictions on silver, which took effect on January 1, have added fresh urgency to an already tight market. With China controlling around two-thirds of the global refined silver supply, this creates a potential squeeze. Silver has now gained more than 150% over the past year.

Silver Mines (ASX: SVL) owns Australia’s largest undeveloped silver deposit at Bowdens in NSW. Shares have gained more than 180% over the past year to approximately A$0.22. Production remains years away as the company works through permitting.

Sun Silver (ASX: SS1) is advancing the Maverick Springs project in Nevada, which hosts 539 million ounces of silver equivalent. The stock has climbed roughly 187% to around A$1.91. Recent drilling returned record grades of 70 metres at 160 g/t silver equivalent.

Defence Stocks: Geopolitical Winners

Defence contractors typically rally during periods of military action and heightened global tensions.

DroneShield (ASX: DRO) jumped 8% on the first trading day of 2026. The company’s products are deployed across NATO countries and Ukraine. While the stock remains volatile after its 42% pullback from October highs, recent contract wins totalling over A$14 million demonstrate underlying strength.

Electro Optic Systems (ASX: EOS) has quietly built a contract backlog exceeding A$400 million, including an A$108 million Australian Defence Force order and an A$120 million weapons deal with South Korea. The company offers cleaner execution than DroneShield at a more attractive valuation.

Energy Stocks: Mixed Signals for Woodside and Santos

The impact on energy stocks is less straightforward. Oil initially rose 1.7% following the strike, but the longer-term picture depends on whether Venezuelan production eventually increases under US management.

Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) and Santos (ASX: STO) both benefit from short-term oil price support, but Trump’s stated goal of rebuilding Venezuelan oil infrastructure could eventually add supply to global markets. For now, Woodside’s 7% dividend yield and low-cost operations make it the more defensive choice, while Santos remains exposed to takeover speculation following recent consortium interest.

The Investor’s Takeaway

Gold and silver miners are the clearest winners here, with safe-haven demand likely to persist while tensions remain elevated. Defence stocks offer upside but come with higher volatility.

Energy is the wild card; short-term oil support helps, but Trump’s plans to rebuild Venezuelan production could add supply pressure later in 2026.
For conservative investors, Northern Star and Woodside offer quality with defensive characteristics. Higher-risk players may prefer silver stocks or DroneShield for greater upside if tensions escalate.