Turners Automotive (ASX:TRA): A Great 5-Year Track Record, But Will The Run Continue?

If you want a lesson in how a New Zealand company can quietly and consistently build shareholder wealth, look no further than Turners Automotive (ASX:TRA).

On Tuesday March 24, the group held its 2026 Investor Day in Auckland and what was on show was not just a company that has executed well. It was a company that has earned the right to set its sights considerably higher. We appreciate that used car dealers don’t have the best performance record on the ASX (Peter Warren being a case in point) and there is the stereotype around used car salesmen (and to some extent women too), but hear us out.

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Five years of delivery from Turners Automotive (ASX:TRA)

The last time Turners hosted an investor day was April 2021, and the business has transformed substantially since then. Back then the company’s market capitalisation sat at around NZ$295m. Today it stands at approximately NZ$777m. Net profit before tax (NPBT) has risen from NZ$37m in FY21 to NZ$54.3m in FY25 a near-50% increase across a period that included a global pandemic hangover, surging inflation, and one of the sharpest interest rate hiking cycles New Zealand has ever experienced.

What makes that track record even more remarkable is that Turners has been publicly accountable for it. The company has now published three consecutive medium-term profit targets, and it has beaten each of them. The first was set in FY21: reach NZ$45m NPBT by FY24. It was exceeded. Number two was set in FY23: hit NZ$50m by FY25. Exceeded again. The third is reaching NZ$65m by FY28 and this looks likely to be achieved as early as FY27, with FY26 forecast NPBT tracking at NZ$63m (excluding a goodwill write-down on its EC Credit Collection business).

The company also proudly noted at its investor day that it ranks number one for total shareholder return over the last five years and number two over ten years against its own self-selected peer benchmark group. That’s not something many ASX or NZX-listed companies could say through the same turbulent period.

The Platform Is the Moat

Turners’ success stems from a deceptively simple insight: used cars are a needs-based, high-frequency, resilient market but most players in it are fragmented and subscale. The group has spent years building an integrated platform that ties together auto retail, consumer finance (via Oxford Finance), insurance (via Autosure), and now servicing and repairs (via Turners Servicing and Repairs, or TSR). With 700-plus staff, 32 branch locations from Whangarei to Invercargill, and a website attracting more than 350,000 unique visitors per month (a figure up 22% year-on-year) the business has become genuinely difficult to replicate.

The used car market in New Zealand turns over more than one million transactions per year and has historically proven resilient through downturns. While new car sales fluctuate sharply with economic conditions, used car volumes are largely needs-driven. Importantly, the number of registered dealers across New Zealand has fallen by 26% since 2018 to around 2,600. For a scaled operator like Turners, the structural thinning of competition is a significant long-term tailwind.

Across the group’s four divisions, each leader articulated their own competitive position at the investor day. Auto Retail CEO Greg Hedgepeth noted that sourcing used cars is Turners’ “superpower” with sourcing leads generated per year nearly doubling since 2020 to over 83,000. CEO Guy Bryden noted that the loan book has grown by NZ$102m (23%) since February 2025 to NZ$536m, while credit quality has actually improved, allowing the group to grow the book by a further 50% without any additional capital injection, following a successful inaugural public securitisation deal.

Insurance CEO James Searle laid out an ambition to reposition mechanical breakdown insurance (MBI) the way pet insurance has been repositioned from a niche product to a mainstream category, targeting the roughly 485,000 private-to-private used car transactions each year that currently have almost no MBI penetration. And TSR’s Richard Wafer made the case that mobile mechanics will disrupt the traditional workshop model in New Zealand, drawing a direct parallel with AutoNation’s acquisition of RepairSmith in the US.

Meet Tina and the FY31 Roadmap

One of the more memorable moments of the 2026 investor day was the callback to Tina from Turners, the fictional persona first unveiled at the 2021 investor day and now something of an icon for the brand. Tina represents Turners’ investment in brand storytelling and the strategy has worked.

Turners has won New Zealand’s Most Trusted Used Car Dealership award for six consecutive years, with 98% of customers surveyed indicating they would recommend the brand. More than two-thirds of Turners’ 350-person team own shares in the company, giving real teeth to the “ownership mindset” culture championed by Chairman Grant Baker and Group CEO Todd Hunter.

The big headline from the day, however, was the announcement of a fourth medium-term profit target: NZ$100 million NPBT by FY31. This would represent approximately 84% growth on current FY25 NPBT and roughly 50% on the FY26 forecast result. Management estimates the majority will come from organic growth new Auto Retail branch openings (15 are targeted), Finance book growth, Insurance’s direct-to-consumer push, and TSR’s regional expansion with a modest contribution from synergistic bolt-on acquisitions adjacent to the used car ecosystem.

Is It Credible?

The honest answer is: mostly yes, with some caveats.

The macroeconomic backdrop is turning in Turners’ favour. New Zealand’s economy contracted 0.5% in 2024 and the recovery has been, as Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan bluntly described it, “without conviction.” Unemployment peaked at 5.4% in late 2025, consumer confidence remains below long-run averages, and a renewed Middle East conflict has added fresh inflationary pressure.

But the direction of travel is improving. The Reserve Bank has cut the Official Cash Rate from 5.50% to 2.25%, mortgage rates are rolling off onto lower fixed terms, and GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 2.8-3.4% in FY27. As Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold put it, the New Zealand economy looks to be on “much firmer footing” going into 2026.

For Turners, a recovering consumer environment doesn’t just help on the margin it is a genuine upside catalyst. Higher transaction volumes flow through every part of the platform simultaneously: more cars sourced and sold, more finance originated, more insurance policies written, more servicing work booked. The company has already demonstrated it can grow profits in a tough cycle. The question for FY31 is whether it can accelerate that growth in a tailwind environment, and the historical evidence says it can.

The main risks are concentration (New Zealand is a small market), execution risk on the branch rollout, and whether TSR can scale quickly enough to justify its ambitions in what remains a nascent mobile mechanic category. The ECCC goodwill write-down is also a reminder that not every acquisition or investment goes to plan.

Our conclusion

But across five years of delivering what it promised and with a team that is materially invested in the outcome, Turners has built a compelling case for continued confidence. Chairman Baker’s opening message at the investor day was brief: “There is a lot more to come.” Based on the evidence, that is not bravado. It is a company that has earned the right to say it.