West African Resources (ASX:WAF) and Its Burkina Faso Project are Looking very Solid for 2026

West African Resources (ASX: WAF) has captured investor attention in 2025 by achieving its first gold pour at the Kiaka Gold Project in Burkina Faso, a milestone reached ahead of schedule and under budget. The achievement highlights WAF’s operational discipline and cements its reputation as a capable builder of large-scale mines, reinforcing its transition from a single-asset operator towards a mid-tier gold producer. Yet, this progress comes with heightened political risk. Reports of the Burkinabe government seeking to increase its stake in Kiaka sparked concerns of resource nationalism, leading to an ASX trading suspension of West African Resources shares pending clarification. For investors, this dual narrative of strong execution and rising sovereign risk defines the WAF story today: a high-growth gold opportunity balanced by jurisdictional uncertainty.

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Kiaka Gold Project: Ahead of Schedule and Under Budget

The Kiaka Gold Project has quickly become the centrepiece of West African Resources’ growth strategy. Acquired in early 2022 from B2Gold and GAMS-Mining F&I, it sits just 45 kilometres south of the Sanbrado mine and benefits from existing infrastructure in the region. West African Resources holds a 90% stake, with the Burkinabe government carrying 10% under the mining code. This proximity to Sanbrado provides operational synergies, helping WAF optimise logistics and share technical expertise between its assets.

In June 2025, Kiaka achieved its first gold pour, a 5.7-kilogram bar of doré, earlier than scheduled and with construction costs reportedly coming in under budget. Such achievements are rare in the gold mining sector, where delays and overruns are the norm, and they demonstrate West African Resources’ technical capability and cost discipline. With a reserve base of 4.8 million ounces and total resources near 7.9 million ounces, Kiaka is expected to produce an average of 234,000 ounces annually over a 20-year mine life. The project is now in ramp-up, with West African Resources guiding for full throughput in the second half of 2025. By 2029, West African Resources forecasts production could peak at nearly 569,000 ounces annually, which, if achieved, would place it among the larger ASX-listed African gold producers. However, the positive momentum for Kiaka gold production was soon overshadowed by political developments that unsettled markets and investors alike.

Government Stakeholder Concerns in Burkina Faso

The optimism surrounding Kiaka’s first gold pour was quickly tempered when Burkina Faso’s government requested to increase its ownership in the project by an additional 35%, which would raise its total stake to 50%. The news prompted the ASX to suspend trading of WAF shares, reflecting how material such a move would be to shareholder value. For investors, the prospect of dilution or forced terms created immediate concern that operational gains could be offset by unfavourable political outcomes.
Burkinabe officials later clarified that the 35% stake increase was a solicitation rather than a compulsory acquisition, noting that the government was inviting negotiation rather than mandating it. While this reassurance calmed some nerves, many investors remain cautious. In resource-rich but politically volatile jurisdictions, an “optional” request often carries implicit pressure, particularly when governments hold legal rights to acquire equity in mining projects.

The government has introduced rules under the revised mining code requiring a 15% priority dividend to the state, reducing free cash flow available to WAF shareholders. Combined with broader political rhetoric around nationalising foreign-owned mines, this episode has underscored the fragile balance between West African Resources’ operational execution and its ability to safeguard economic returns. For shareholders, the risk is not whether Kiaka can produce gold but whether West African Resources will retain enough of the upside to justify its market valuation.

West African Resources’ Expanding Gold Footprint

Despite the noise surrounding Kiaka, it is important to recognise that West African Resources is now a multi-asset producer with significant growth potential. In total, the company reports around 6.5 million ounces of ore reserves, with total resources estimated at about 12.2 million ounces across Burkina Faso, supported by a production outlook that averages nearly 480,000 ounces annually over the coming decade. This growing footprint elevates West African Resources from a single-mine operator to a serious mid-tier producer on the ASX.

The Sanbrado mine, which poured its first gold in 2020, continues to generate cash flow and serves as the company’s foundation. Its established infrastructure has also set the stage for the development of Toega, a satellite deposit just 13 kilometres away. Toega is expected to begin feeding ore into Sanbrado’s processing plant later in 2025, boosting production with relatively modest capital requirements. Together, these projects strengthen West African Resources’ regional presence and allow the company to leverage economies of scale. At the centre of this strategy remains the WAF Kiaka gold mine, by far the largest project in the portfolio. Its sheer size ensures that it will dominate West African Resources’ production profile in future years. With the company choosing to remain unhedged, investors gain direct exposure to gold price movements, enhancing returns in a bullish market but also leaving earnings vulnerable to downturns. This operating model underscores both the opportunity and the risk embedded in West African Resources’ investment case.

Risks and Rewards for Investors

From an investment standpoint, West African Resources offers both exciting opportunities and significant risks. On the reward side, the company has now demonstrated with Kiaka, and previously with Sanbrado, that it can deliver projects ahead of schedule, with Kiaka also reported as under budget, a track record that few ASX-listed gold miners can match. The ramp-up of Kiaka, combined with Sanbrado’s steady output and Toega’s integration, positions West African Resources for meaningful scale, lower unit costs, and improved market recognition as a mid-tier African gold producer. The strong gold price environment further strengthens WAF’s investment case. Gold is trading close to historical highs, supported by inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong central bank demand. By remaining unhedged, WAF captures the full benefit of price movements, providing shareholders with pure leverage to bullion. Add to this the ongoing exploration upside, and it is clear why the company has attracted attention from growth-focused investors. However, the downside risks are just as clear. Political and sovereign risk in Burkina Faso remains elevated, with the government’s stake request highlighting how quickly the investment landscape can shift. Security issues, insurgency threats, and shifting mining laws add further layers of complexity. Operationally, the ramp-up of Kiaka still carries risk, and any missteps could be magnified in the eyes of already cautious investors. Finally, while exposure to gold prices provides upside, it also means West African Resources remains vulnerable to any sharp downturn in bullion markets.

Conclusion

West African Resources has proven itself capable of delivering large-scale projects in difficult environments, and the first gold pour at Kiaka is the latest example of that skill. With reserves of 6.5 million ounces and production set to scale above half a million ounces annually, West African Resources has positioned itself as a major force in gold mining in Burkina Faso. Yet, political risk remains the defining challenge. The government’s request for a larger stake has highlighted the uncertainty of operating in frontier jurisdictions, where sovereign ambitions can undermine shareholder value. For investors, West African Resources is a stock that offers high reward potential through operational success and leverage to the gold price, but it demands careful sizing in a portfolio given the elevated jurisdictional risk.

FAQs

• What is the current outlook for the West African Resources share price?

  The share price has been volatile in 2025, reflecting both strong operational progress at Kiaka and uncertainty over the Burkina Faso government’s push for a larger stake. Analysts generally see upside if WAF can secure fair terms with the state and maintain cost discipline, especially with gold prices near record levels.

• How significant is the WAF Kiaka gold mine to the company’s future?

  Kiaka is the largest project in WAF’s portfolio, with total resources of about 7.9 million ounces and a planned mine life of around 20 years. Once fully ramped up, it is expected to produce about 234,000 ounces of gold annually and form the backbone of WAF’s growth strategy.

• What risks do investors face with gold mining in Burkina Faso?

  The main risks are political and security-related. Burkina Faso’s military government has signalled interest in increasing state ownership of mining assets, while ongoing insurgency issues can pose operational and logistical challenges. These factors add a higher jurisdictional risk premium compared with gold miners in more stable regions.

• How does WAF compare with other ASX-listed gold miners?

  Unlike many ASX peers focused on Australia or North America, WAF’s operations are concentrated in West Africa. This gives the company access to large, high-grade deposits but also exposes it to greater political risk. Its execution track record at Sanbrado and Kiaka is strong, positioning it as one of the more credible African-focused ASX gold miners.

• Will the government’s request for a larger stake affect Kiaka gold production?

  In the short term, production itself is unlikely to be disrupted. Kiaka continues its ramp-up toward full throughput. The risk lies in financial terms: if the government acquires an additional stake or enforces higher dividend obligations, this could reduce the economic benefit flowing back to WAF shareholders.