WiseTech Crashes 50%: Buy the Dip at $67 or Wait?

WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC) has suffered one of the most dramatic falls among ASX tech stocks this year, plunging more than 50% from its November 2024 highs of $141.61 to trade around $67. The sell-off was triggered by governance controversies surrounding founder Richard White, who stepped down as CEO in October 2024 but returned as Executive Chairman in February 2025 after four directors resigned in protest. Yet amid the wreckage, the majority of Wall Street analysts still rate WiseTech Global a buy, with the most optimistic price target sitting at $177.97, representing a potential 165% upside from current levels. For investors watching from the sidelines, the question is whether this represents a genuine opportunity or a value trap in the making.

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Why Analysts Still See 165% Upside Despite the Crash

The bull case for WiseTech rests on one simple premise: the underlying business remains fundamentally sound despite the leadership turbulence. The company’s CargoWise platform dominates global freight forwarding software, with a customer base that includes many of the world’s largest logistics providers. This isn’t discretionary software; it’s mission-critical infrastructure that companies rely on to manage billions of dollars in freight movements annually.

What makes the business particularly attractive:

– Exceptional stickiness: Once a freight forwarder integrates CargoWise into their operations, switching costs are extraordinarily high. Customer retention rates exceed 99%, creating a durable recurring revenue model that few software businesses can match.

– Pricing power: The mission-critical nature of the platform gives WiseTech strong pricing leverage. Customers view price increases as a cost of doing business rather than a negotiable expense.

– Revenue resilience: Growth has remained solid even through the leadership crisis, suggesting customers view the platform as indispensable regardless of who runs the company.

Analysts maintaining buy ratings appear to be making a clear separation between founder drama and business fundamentals. Their view is that WiseTech’s competitive moat, built over three decades of product development and customer integration, hasn’t been damaged by recent governance issues. If new leadership can stabilise the ship and maintain the product roadmap, the valuation discount created by the sell-off could prove temporary.

The Governance Cloud That Won’t Lift Quickly

WiseTech’s stock slump isn’t just a typical market dip; it’s a deepening governance crisis. Founder Richard White stepped down as CEO in October 2024 amid conduct and transaction concerns, only to return as Executive Chairman in February 2025 after four directors quit over his role. Then, in October 2025, ASIC and federal police raided WiseTech’s Sydney office over alleged share trading violations.
White still controls 37% of the company and remains in charge, despite mounting regulatory scrutiny and investor unease. Leadership transitions at founder-led tech firms are tough, especially when the founder was deeply involved in strategy and product development.
For investors, governance issues pose a unique risk. Even if operations stay strong, doubts about oversight and culture can drag the stock down. The market is applying a “trust discount”, and rebuilding that trust will take time, clear execution, and resolution of investigations.

The Investor’s Takeaway

At $67, WiseTech Global trades at roughly half its previous highs, bringing valuation multiples down from stratospheric levels to merely expensive. The analyst consensus suggesting 165% upside potential is compelling on paper, but investors should recognise that this assumes both a full recovery of confidence in the company’s governance and successful resolution of regulatory investigations.

For different investor profiles:

– Contrarian growth investors with a 2-3 year horizon and high tolerance for governance risk: The current price could represent an attractive entry point. The business fundamentals supporting the bull case, 99%+ customer retention, mission-critical software, and recurring revenue, remain remarkably intact despite the turmoil.

– Conservative or income-focused investors: Should wait for clearer signs of stabilisation. Watch for evidence that customer retention holds firm, that product development continues apace, that regulatory investigations conclude without material findings, and that institutional shareholders regain confidence in board oversight.

WiseTech’s 50% drop may look like a buying opportunity, but it’s clouded by serious governance uncertainty. Analysts remain optimistic, but the road from $67 back to $178 will likely be long and volatile, requiring patience through earnings cycles, regulatory clarity, and leadership stability.
For most investors, the prudent approach is to wait for at least two quarters of stable performance and clarity on regulatory investigations before committing capital. AustralianSuper’s $580 million exit in March 2025 over governance concerns is a warning sign. If WiseTech proves its platform strength and customer loyalty remains intact while making real governance reforms, the confirmation may justify missing the lowest price point.