Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) Surges 10% on Constellation Approval: Still a Buy?

Aeris clears Constellation approval, but is the upside already priced in?

Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS) surged 10% to 60 cents after receiving Development Consent from the NSW Department of Planning for its Constellation copper-gold project. For investors tracking Australian copper stocks, this approval removes the final major regulatory barrier for what will become Tritton’s next significant ore source. But with shares up roughly 180% year-to-date and now trading near 52-week highs, the key question is whether the good news is already priced in.

What are the Best ASX Mining Stocks to invest in right now?

Check our buy/sell tips

Constellation Approval De-Risks Tritton’s Future

The Development Consent from the NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure marks a pivotal moment for Aeris. Constellation sits approximately 45 kilometres north-east of the Tritton Processing Plant, making it logistically attractive as a baseload feed source.

The project’s Open Pit Ore Reserve stands at 2.3 million tonnes grading 2.0% copper and 0.6 g/t gold, containing 47,000 tonnes of copper and 49,000 ounces of gold. At 2.0% copper, Constellation offers meaningfully higher grades than typical Australian deposits. We believe this grade advantage should translate to stronger margins once production begins in Q1 FY27.

Executive Chairman Andre Labuschagne called the approval “a key milestone,” noting it positions Constellation to become Tritton’s next major ore source. Constellation’s proximity means ore can be trucked directly to the existing plant without major infrastructure investment.

Aeris Delivers Turnaround Year as Copper Prices Surge

The Constellation approval caps a remarkable turnaround year for Aeris. In FY25, the company swung from a net loss to a $45.2 million profit, representing a 286% improvement. EBITDA jumped 78% to $163.7 million, driven by cost management and favourable commodity prices.

The copper price tailwind has been substantial. Copper has surged approximately 40% in 2025, hitting record highs above US$12,000 per tonne. This rally reflects structural demand from EVs, renewable energy, and AI infrastructure, combined with persistent supply constraints.

Looking ahead, Aeris is targeting 24,000 to 29,000 tonnes of copper production at Tritton for FY26, with Constellation adding meaningful tonnage from Q1 FY27. This suggests the company is entering a growth phase that could sustain momentum if copper prices hold.

The Investor’s Takeaway

Here’s where investors need to think carefully. At 60 cents, Aeris trades near the average analyst price target of approximately 62-68 cents, suggesting limited near-term upside to consensus expectations. The stock’s 180% year-to-date gain has already priced in much of the good news.

The bull case rests on continued copper price strength, successful Constellation ramp-up, and potential resource extensions at Tritton. If copper maintains its momentum and Constellation delivers on schedule, there’s scope for earnings upgrades.

The bear case centres on the reality that the stock is already trading near analyst targets after an exceptional run. The most significant risk, in our view, is execution at Constellation; any delays or cost overruns could quickly erode investor confidence, given the elevated expectations now baked into the share price.

Our view: Existing holders have reason to stay, given strong operational momentum and supportive copper fundamentals. However, for new investors considering an entry at current levels, the risk-reward appears less compelling than it did six months ago. Those looking to build a position might consider waiting for a pullback, as limited upside to consensus targets suggests much of the near-term opportunity is already reflected in today’s price.