Where to Next for Bitcoin? Here’s where the world’s most famous cryptocurrency might be headed in the next 12 months

Ujjwal Maheshwari Ujjwal Maheshwari, June 21, 2024

Where to Next for Bitcoin? To say Bitcoin (BTC) has been on an interesting journey over the past few months in an understatement. After a period of consolidation that lasted around three months, the market is buzzing with speculation about its next move. Adding to the excitement is the launch of Australia’s first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which directly holds bitcoin.


Understanding Bitcoin’s Recent Consolidation

Bitcoin has been pretty stable lately, hanging out between $60,000 and $70,000 for the past three months. It’s like it’s stuck in a narrow lane, and here’s why.

First up, the overall mood among investors is pretty cautious. Everyone’s trying to figure out if the potential gains outweigh the risks, especially with all the economic ups and downs and new rules coming into play.

Speaking of rules, there’s been a lot going on, especially in the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) got people excited at the start of this year by saying yes to Bitcoin ETFs that track the price directly. But, regulators haven’t become ‘crypto bros’ just yet – still keeping a sharp eye on things and going after some big names in the crypto industry.

Then, there are the bigger economic issues like rising prices and changes in interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Since many see Bitcoin as a safe place to park money when prices are going up, any news from the Fed can really affect Bitcoin’s price.

So, what’s the big deal about Bitcoin not moving much? It’s like it’s taking a deep breath, getting ready for something big. It could shoot up or take a dive, but this quiet time is important—it’s when Bitcoin is gearing up for what’s next.


The Launch of Australia’s First Spot Bitcoin ETF

Meanwhile, over in Australia, there’s been exciting news for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Monochrome Asset Management rolled out the country’s first spot Bitcoin ETF in April, listed on the Cboe Australia exchange under the ticker IBTC. This was followed by the VanEck Bitcoin ETF earlier this week. What’s cool about both ETFs is that it holds actual Bitcoin, not just pieces of other funds that own Bitcoin. This makes it super straightforward and clear for investors who want to get into Bitcoin without the complexity.


Impact on the Market

The launch of theset Bitcoin ETF in Australia is a pretty big deal. This could really boost confidence among investors, drawing in both big-time institutional investors and everyday folks who might have been on the fence before.

By making Bitcoin investment easier and more straightforward, this ETF could also help bring more money into the market, which might make things more stable and fluid.

With this move, Australia is getting in line with places like the U.S. and Hong Kong, which have also started rolling out similar Bitcoin ETFs. It shows that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are becoming a more accepted part of the financial world, not just something for the tech-savvy or risk-takers.


Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics Post-Consolidation

Coming back to Bitcoin’s price, things were looking up. It closed May above $68,200, which not only shows a 5.9% jump from the previous month but also an impressive 60% climb since the start of the year.

A big thumbs-up from regulators helped a lot. When the SEC said yes to spot Ethereum ETFs, it wasn’t just good news for Ethereum; it made people more confident about cryptocurrencies in general.

Looking ahead, there’s chatter that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this year. Since many see Bitcoin as a safe place when prices are rising—kind of like digital gold—any hints that money might be easier to come by can make Bitcoin even more attractive.

Overall, the mood among investors is upbeat. They’re seeing Bitcoin as a solid alternative to traditional investments, holding onto it as a safeguard and betting on its value holding strong.


So where to next for bitcoin? Here are some potential scenarios

If Bitcoin breaks through the $70,000 resistance level, it could trigger a new wave of buying, pushing prices toward previous highs and beyond. Positive regulatory news and macroeconomic easing would support this scenario.


Bitcoin price


On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to maintain current support levels, it could retrace to lower support zones around $65,000 or even $60,000. Regulatory setbacks or macroeconomic tightening could contribute to this outcome.


The Broader Cryptocurrency Market Context

While Bitcoin has been pretty steady, other major cryptocurrencies have had a mixed bag of results. Ethereum (ETH), for instance, had a great month in May, jumping up by 17.1%. A lot of this excitement comes from the buzz around the possible green light for spot Ethereum ETFs. But it wasn’t all sunny days for every crypto; Cardano (ADA) slipped a bit, dropping by 1.8%.

The scene is also changing with the introduction of spot ETFs, which is a pretty big deal. Unlike the futures-based ETFs we’ve seen before, spot ETFs stick close to the actual current price of the cryptocurrency. This means they give a more real-time, accurate snapshot of what’s happening in the market. Futures ETFs, on the other hand, deal with futures contracts. This can sometimes cause a bit of a gap between how the ETF is doing and the real price of the crypto it’s based on.


Going Ahead

The next few months are shaping up to be pretty critical for Bitcoin. There’s a lot on the horizon with possible new regulations, changes in the bigger economic picture and just the general twists and turns of the market. The world of cryptocurrency is always buzzing, and it’s packed with opportunities.

Whether Bitcoin keeps climbing higher or takes a step back, really getting the hang of what’s driving those changes is key. For anyone with a stake in Bitcoin—or thinking about getting in—staying on top of these factors and keeping informed is absolutely essential to safeguard your interest.


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