Uber (NYSE:UBER): Finally mature and profitable, but with more growth to come

More than a decade and a half since it was founded, Uber (NYSE:UBER) is finally a mature company. It has made its first and second annual profits, has either won or favourably settled all the wars it has been in, and has the right management team to take it to the next phase of growth. And yes, there is more growth to come.

Recap of the history of Uber

If you don’t know who Uber is, you’ve probably been living on Planet Mars. But for those who don’t, let’s recap. Uber is a company that provides mobility services, consumer delivery services and even industrial freight services.

It all began in San Francisco in 2008 when Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp became frustrated with taxi services in that city and developed the app that could hail taxis. It was inspired in-part by James Bond tracking his car with his Sony Ericsson in Casino Royale.

Take a look at its first pitch deck from 2008 that helped it raise US$200,000 – particularly slide 20 when it talks about a Best and Worst case scenario. The worst-case scenario was that it remained a 10-car, 100-client service in the Fog City, but the Best-Case is that it becomes a market leader with $1bn+ in yearly revenue. Doesn’t seem like they imagined a scenario where it would be a company generating $44.2bn in bookings!

Not making friends, but good at raising money

Gone are the days of wondering where your taxi is, fishing your wallet for coins to pay. How many taxi drivers get users who just jump out because they are so used to frictionless Uber? Imagine a business that gets $50-100 every time someone enters or exits a city. That is Uber.

As it grew, it encountered opposition from the taxi industry and sympathetic lawmakers. However, that did not stop it from continuing to raise money, culminating in a 2019 NYSE IPO. Why? Because venture capitalists thought that the law would give way before Uber (and rightly so). When a business model is so badly broken, consumers will go out of their way to find a better service, even to the point of breaking the law.

Where it is at and where it is headed

Uber is now run by Dara Khosrowshahi, who succeeded Kalanick in 2017. He cleaned up the image of the company, which has suffered due to revelations about the culture Kalanick had created. After fighting laws that labelled drivers as employees, the company has waved the white flag, declaring that it could cope under any regulatory framework (although it would inevitably have to raise prices in some areas).

In 2024, the company made $44.2bn in bookings, $22.8bn of which came from ‘mobility bookings and the rest from delivery booking. 3.1 billion trips were made. The company made $770m in income from operations.

Its net income was $6.9bn, although this included a $6.4bn benefit from a tax valuation release and a $556m pre-tax benefit due to net unrealised gains related to the revaluation of Uber equity investments. The company closed the year with $7bn in cash and 30 million Uber One members. Yes, the company’s customers are regular spenders – more than a third of consumers are mutli-product and spend 3 times more than single-product customers.

Even in Q1 of 2025, it saw 18% more trips during the quarter and 14% more gross bookings and revenue. Its net income was $1.8bn and only $51m of which was due to revaluations of equity investments.

Key to the company’s future will be continued membership growth and autonomous vehicles. In 2024, it launched autonomous ride-hailing in Dubai with Re-ride and autonomous sidewalk robots in Austin and Dallas. It has also formed a JV with Nvidia to collaborate on autonomous driving technology, powered by AI. And the company is expanding the application of AI in even ordinary business respects including helping with user UX, personalised recommendations for customers and even to help drivers (for instance, by recommending areas to ‘service’ for higher money per trip).

Looks expensive, but really isn’t

It is easy to think that when a company like Uber is so dominant, it cannot get bigger. The company claims otherwise, telling investors it has more growth to come, launching Uber for teens in America and Uber for taxis in Japan. More and more members are joining its loyalty program, and its machine learning tools are getting stronger and stronger.

Consensus estimates for 2025, drawn from 45 analysts, call for $50.6bn revenue, $8.6bn EBITDA and $2.84 EPS. The first 2 are up 14% and 32% respectively, although the former is a decline due to the lower contribution from investment revaluations. But in 2026, analysts expect $58bn revenue, $10.8bn EBTDA and $3.46 EPS (up 15%, 25% and 22% respectively). The mean target price for Uber is US$95.95, a 15% premium to the current share price.

A good growth opportunity

It may well be a tech company, but one that is immune to inflation and is now able to not just survive but thrive without repeated capital injections. So if you’ve missed out on the growth story to date, there’s little further reason to hold out further.

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