Will Trump Make Uranium Great Again? And either way, what’s next for uranium stocks

Uranium investors hoping the Trump administration would ‘Make Uranium Great Again’ have been disappointed so far, but should investors give up hope for another 4 years?

Why the dream to Make Uranium Great Again hasn’t come to fruition

The hope that uranium would return to the pre-GFC glory days has been based on the assumption that the world would turn to nuclear power as an alternative to coal-fired power that doesn’t have the price tag that wind, solar and hydro energy does.

Australian investors have had additional hope that Peter Dutton would get into the Lodge and he would lift the ban on nuclear power. Although uranium mining is not banned here, making uranium into anything other than oxide is banned. Even if Dutton’s promise of government-funded nuclear power plants would take time and money to implement, the lifting of the ban and the start of construction of the first would spur hope for aspiring developers.

As for America, the world’s largest uranium customer, there are factors there too. There was hope that the anti-red tape Trump administration would make it easier to get projects off the ground. And more domestic uranium would be encouraged, potentially through subsidies or even quotas.

But here is where things get messy. The reality is that the US imports more than a quarter of its uranium from Canada. The 10% tariff on energy exports will add to the costs of many American companies wanting to use nuclear power. And that is before considering potential export tariffs that Canada has threatened on the US.

You could say to uranium companies,’ Well just buy American uranium,’ but the reality is that there aren’t enough projects to make up the shortfall – at least, not yet.

Moreover, the general economic uncertainty around the impact of tariffs is hurting too. If America enters into a recession, making big investments into uranium projects will be less feasible, even if interest rates go down. This is because uranium prices could slide (as they did during the GFC) and energy consumption could fall too.

But is there hope?

There is some. Of course, this uncertainty will not last forever. It is easy to forget that uranium prices went on a bull run in late 2023 and early 2024, reaching levels not seen in 15 years all over supply concerns. This was particularly due to AI and data centres which will need higher power consumption. Uranium is an ideal end market opportunity. Of course, the emergence of power-efficient DeepSeek has led to concerns that this may not be the case and this is actually what started the 2025 bear market for uranium.

Barrenjoey has estimated that there is a 20m pound supply deficit now and this will grow to 25m by 2030 – and even that assumes mine supply would grow by 50m pounds. It expects US$80 a pound prices in the longer-term. Obviously this would be a good opportunity for uranium companies and potential investors in them.

These uranium stocks could be ‘great again’ either way

Peninsula Resources (ASX:PEN) is in our view the key uranium stock to watch. As a company with a project in the northern state of Wyoming, it will not be subject to any tariffs. And Peninsula’s project (Lance) is one of the largest US uranium projects with 53.7Mlb of JORC Resources. The conservative DFS, completed in August 2022, estimated a 14-year mine life generating 14.4Mlb, deriving a 43% pre-tax IRR, US$895.2 project revenue across the life of the project and a US$124.8m pre-tax NPV. 

Another uranium company in the state of Wymoing is GTI Energy (ASX:GTR). It is still at an exploration stage, but has a decent resource of 8.57m pounds, of which 2.78mlb is indicated (and the balance is inferred). Moreover, it and Peninsula specialise in the so-called Insitu Recovery (ISR) method. The method involves recovering minerals from a suitable orebody before dissolving them and pumping the solution to the surface where the minerals can be recovered, thereby generating no tailings or waste rock.

Conclusion

Investors hoping the election of Donald Trump would lead to the uranium market and uranium companies being reinvigorated would be disappointed so far. Whilst all hope is not lost, and some companies could still be beneficiaries even in a worst case scenarios where all tariffs remain…the market will be volatile in the foreseeable future.

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